EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUA/UKA Track Weekly Gains On TTF Rally
Aug-22 15:30
{EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are on track for a 2.48% and 3.11% and weekly gain, supported by over 8% gains in TTF amid supply concern with seasonal maintenance in Norway to ramp up next week. Meanwhile, investors are raising bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September following Chair Jerome Powell’s speech today, lifting global equity markets. With the EUA-STOXX correlation at 0.30, close to the EUA-TTF correlation, broader equity market gains could support both EUAs and UKAs.
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.1% at 72.55 EUR/t CO2e
- UKA DEC 25 up 0.71% at 52.42 GBP/t CO2e
- TTF Gas SEP 25 up 0.4% at 33.305 EUR/MWh
- NBP Gas SEP 25 up 0.6% at 83 GBp/therm
- Estoxx 50 up 0.5% at 5488.61
- The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €72.05/ton CO2e, up 2.74% compared with the previous Germany auction at €70.13/ton CO2e according to EEX.
- TTF front month is set for a net gain on the week, reaching the highest since Aug. 6 at €33.5/MWh amid supply concern. Seasonal maintenance in Norway is to ramp up next week while hope of a Ukraine ceasefire reduced through the week.
- EUAs Dec25 has strengthened over the week, up nearly 3% w/w, rising above its 10, 50, and 100-day moving averages for the first time in two weeks. Momentum indicators point to potential bullish signals.
- Prices moving above all key short and medium-term moving averages reinforce bullish momentum, with traders now eyeing on short-term catalysts, such as Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
- EUA Dec25 could find support next week from tighter gas supply and lower wind output, while stable power demand and weather forecasts may limit gains.
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US STOCKS: Early Equities Roundup: New Highs for SPX Eminis, Tech Stocks Stall
Jul-23 15:21
- Stocks are firmer early Wednesday, SPX eminis just off new all-time highs (6376.75), supported by a mix of Industrials, Health Care and Energy sector shares - risk sentiment buoyed after Pres Trump announced a sweeping trade deal with Japan late Tuesday.
- Currently, the DJIA trades up 185.94 points (0.42%) at 44688.76, S&P E-Minis up 13.75 points (0.22%) at 6360.75, Nasdaq up 18.5 points (0.1%) at 20908.89.
- Leading gainers in the first half buoyed by better than expected earnings: Lamb Weston Holdings +20.40%, GE Vernova +14.31%, Thermo Fisher Scientific +13.17%, Lennox International +9.69%, TE Connectivity +8.94%, Moderna +8.65%, Baker Hughes +7.96%, Vistra +6.85% and General Dynamics +6.31%.
- Technology sector shares primarily led decliners in the first half: Fiserv -17.68%, Enphase Energy -13.48%, Texas Instruments -12.40%, Microchip Technology -7.33%, ON Semiconductor -7.17% and Teledyne Technologies -5.13%. Other laggers outside of Tech included: Otis Worldwide -11.20%, NectEra Energy -4.40%, Albemarle -4.10 and Hasbro -4.04%
- Earnings expected after today's close: T-Mobile US, Mattel, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Molina Healthcare, CSX Corp, O'Reilly Automotive, Tesla, ServiceNow, Crown Castle, United Rentals, Rollins, QuantumScape, Alphabet, Alaska Air, Las Vegas Sands, Viking Therapeutics, IBM, and Valero Energy Corp.
FED: US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $573 MLN FROM $65.000 BLN TOTAL
Jul-23 15:15
- US TSY 17W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $573 MLN FROM $65.000 BLN TOTAL
FOREX: Deutsche Bank Continue to Favour EURCAD Topside
Jul-23 14:46
- Deutsche Bank have noted that while at first glance, there seems to be a lot going right for Canada, a closer look takes a lot of the gloss away. This leaves them with a bearish near-term bias and continuing to favour EUR/CAD topside, which is up ~1.5% since recommending the position in their FX blueprint. They focus on the following fundamentals:
- The recent employment print was certainly strong, but it follows a string of weakness that still leaves Canada’s unemployment 2%pts above the trough – the worst in G10. Separately, both the Ivey PMI and BoC business survey suggest GDP growth could slip to zero.
- The BoC survey finds the uncertainty around tariffs is delaying capex plans and affecting corporate margins since passing on the cost is tough. Tariff uncertainty is also visible in the goods trade balance, which slumped to the largest deficit in decades and in net terms, portfolio flows have worked against CAD.
- The Carney government is indeed planning to spend more on defence and other capex. But it's targeting substantial cuts to operational spending (7.5%+ per year) to fund some of that. The fall budget will contain important detail.
- Overall, DB believe this points in the direction of further BoC easing and it's notable how little is priced (less than 25bps to the trough).
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