EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUA,UKA Fall On Week Amid EU Gas Losses

EUAs/UKAs Dec25 are falling slightly over 1% on the week amid EU gas hitting lowest level since 15 May, with both markets yet to find a clear direction while holding steadier than gas. Meanwhile, the EUAs implied volatility has hit the lowest since late March, suggesting that the market is expecting less turbulence in the short-term. 

• EUA DEC 25 down 0.87% at 70.32 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 down 1.2% at 51.2 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas JUL 25 down 4.3% at 33.88 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas JUL 25 down 5.4% at 78.63 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 down 0.3% at 5363
• Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period remained at 0.58.
• Correlation between EUA/STOXX for 30-day period remained at 0.39.
• Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained high at 0.46.
• Correlation between UKA/FTSE100 for 30-day period remained high at 0.38.
• The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent remained at a similar level at €9.46/t CO2e.
• A bull cycle in ICE EUA futures remains in play and a fresh cycle high on May 16 reinforces this theme. The contract is also trading closer to its recent highs. Attention is on resistance at €75.02, the May 16 high, and €75.17, 61.8% of the Jan 30 - Apr 9 bear leg. Clearance of both levels would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Initial support to watch lies at €70.17, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would undermine the bullish theme.
• TTF has fallen to a new intraday low and its weakest since May 15. Pressure likely follows a Trump Truth which criticised China for ‘violating its agreement’ with the US via a vis the tariff pause.
• Shipping firms risk heavy penalties under the EU ETS due to delays and difficulties in emissions reporting, experts warned cited by TradeWinds.
• Carbon Market Watch and Bankwatch raised concerns over fossil fuel financing from EU’s Modernisation Fund under EU ETS, calling for stricter climate alignment, they said.