Atlanta Fed President Bostic on Tuesday reiterated his view expressed in the March Dot Plot that he expects one rate cut later this year - "I don’t have any reason to think that my outlook is going to change radically... a lot of it will depend on how the uncertainty resolves itself. I’m going to stay diligent and take things on as they happen."
- That said, tariffs could boost inflation in the near-term - with the persistence vs one-off impact of tariffs still an open debate - and in any case overall PCE remains above target so "there's still a ways to go in terms of the progress we're going to need to see". He noted local business contacts may be putting off price increases until later in the summer.
- He was speaking to reporters after the release of a new essay, "Pervasive Uncertainty Calls for a Patient Policy Stance" (link) - the title of which basically says it all. As he writes, "As of April, we had not yet seen clear signs of tariffs boosting inflation, though research suggests we might see upward pressure on prices over the coming weeks."
- He also notes in the essay, "Fiscal, tax, and regulatory policy are all likely to see big changes in the coming months as Congress works through its budget processes and the Trump Administration continues to implement its agenda. In each area, one could generate a list of questions as long as the set I just offered about trade. For now, neither I nor anyone has clear answers for any of these questions."