EMISSIONS: EU CBAM to Penalise UK Renewable Power Exports

Jun-17 2024 13:12

British wind and solar power exports to Europe could face CO2 fees from 2026 under the current design of the EU’s CBAM, sources told Reuters.

  • The EU’s CBAM will impose CO2 emissions fees on European imports of steel, cement, aluminium, fertilisers, power and hydrogen, unless the exporting country has equal CO2 pricing policies.
  • Under the current design, the CO2 fee for power imports would be calculated using default value based on average and historic power generation emissions – which would unfairly penalise renewable energy.
  • As much as 3GWh of renewable energy exports from the UK to Europe could be curtailed under the current design, Aurora Energy Research said.
  • The CO2 charges could not only hit revenues of British renewable project but could also lift European power prices, sources told Reuters.
  • "It's a problem on both sides," said Adam Berman, deputy director of industry group Energy UK.
  • "(It) disincentivises clean power in the UK at the moment in which we're trying to ramp up provision of clean power, and it's going to increase (power) prices in northern Europe”, Berman added.
  • "It is an issue that we are conscious of and one that we have raised, that the UK has raised, with the EU," Catherine Stewart, the UK Treasury's deputy director for trade policy, said in May.
  • A European Commission spokesperson said it would continue talks with all countries, including the UK, on the design of the carbon levy before finalising its application from 2026.
  • "The best way to deal with the (CBAM), and to stop the UK exporters paying a tax to the EU that could otherwise go into the UK budget, would be by having (carbon market) linking," SSE'S Group Head of Policy and Advocacy, Alistair McGirr, said.

Historical bullets

CANADA: CIBC See Core CPI Trend Giving BoC Comfort To Cut As Early As June

May-17 2024 19:27
  • CIBC forecast CPI inflation of 0.5% M/M (NSA) which sees a moderation from 2.9% to 2.7% Y/Y.
  • “The levelling off in food prices also appears to have played a large role in bringing weaker monthly changes in the BoC’s trim and median measures of core inflation”.
  • “That should be the case again in April, seeing the Y/Y rates of those measures ease further and keeping the 3 and 6-month annualized trends much more subdued than they were last year.”
  • “While headline inflation remains above target, a continuation of the recent soft trend in core measures should provide the BoC the comfort it needs to gradually start reducing interest rates as early as the June meeting.”

US TSYS: Mildly Weaker Tsys Flirting with Technical Support

May-17 2024 19:19
  • Treasury futures continued to gradually extend session lows by the bell, fully unwinding Wednesday's post-CPI/Retail Sales related rally. The Jun'24 10Y futures are -10.5 to 109-05, just below initial technical support of 109-07+ (50-day EMA).
  • Little data to trade off of Friday, the Conference Board leading indicator fell by more than expected in April, -0.6% M/M (cons -0.3) after -0.3% in March.
  • Unscheduled Fed speak underscored the day's move as Fed Gov Bowman reiterated stance in keeping interest rates steady to allow restrictive policy to bring inflation down.
  • Rate cut projections remain largely in-line with this morning's levels (*): June 2024 at -10% w/ cumulative rate cut -2.5bp at 5.313%, July'24 at -22% w/ cumulative at -8bp at 5.258%, Sep'24 cumulative -21.1bp, Nov'24 cumulative -29.2bp, Dec'24 -44.4bp.Looking ahead to next week, the minutes to the May 1 FOMC will be released next Wednesday.

US TSYS: Modest Bearish Hedging as Projected Rate Cut Pricing Cools

May-17 2024 19:02

SOFR and Treasury option trade remained mixed Friday with better puts emerging in the former as underlying futures trade trade back to pre-CPI and Retail Sales levels. Rate cut projections remain largely in-line with this morning's levels (*): June 2024 at -10% w/ cumulative rate cut -2.5bp at 5.313%, July'24 at -22% w/ cumulative at -8bp at 5.258%, Sep'24 cumulative -21.1bp, Nov'24 cumulative -29.2bp, Dec'24 -44.4bp.

  • SOFR Options:
    • +10,000 SFRN4 94.68/94.75 put spds, 1.0 ref 94.885
    • Over -45,000 (15k Blocked) SFRH5 96.00/96.50 call spds 7.5 vs. 95.38 to -.39/0.11%
    • Block, +11,000 SFRM4 94.62 puts, 0.5 vs. 94.6675/0.05%
    • +15,000 SFRV4 94.75/94.87/94.93/95.06 put condors, 2.5
    • -2,000 SFRU4 94.87 straddles, 21.0-20.5
    • Block, 15,000 SFRM4 94.75/95.00 1x2 call spds 0.0 ref 94.6925
    • +4,000 SFRM4 94.62/95.00 call over risk reversals vs. 94.695/0.10%
    • 1,000 SFRU4 94.62/94.75/94.81/94.88 broken put condors
    • 1,800 SFRU4 94.62/94.75 put spds
    • 2,000 SFRN4/SFRU4 94.68 put spds
    • +5,500 0QH5 94.50/95.00 put spds, 6.0 ref 96.05
  • Treasury Options:
    • 2,500 TYM4 108 puts
    • 2,500 TYM4 107/108/109 call flys
    • 5,000 TYN4 112/TYU4 114 call spd
    • 4,000 USU4 112/117 2x1 put spds ref 117-22
    • 1,000 TYM4 108.75/109.25 3x2 put spds, 13 ref 109-13
    • 1,500 FVM4 106.25/107 1x2 call spds, 5 ref 106-01
    • 3,800 FVM4 105.75/FVN4 106.75 call spds