BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Risk Spreads Tighten Alongside Equity Gains

Jan-22 18:37

Core European yields rose Wednesday, with periphery/semi-core EGB spreads tightening.

  • Bund and Gilt gains peaked in European morning trade, with the periphery/semi-core instruments appearing to lead the way in a session that saw European equities hit fresh record highs.
  • The initial core bid faded and yields hit session highs toward the cash close, weighed down in part by higher oil prices following US President Trump's ultimatum to Russia on reaching a deal to end the war with Ukraine, and with US long-end supply looming later in the day.
  • In a session with limited data, higher-than-expected UK public sector borrowing figures did little to impact Gilts, while ECB speakers at Davos including Lagarde brought no surprises and no major market reaction. Supply included Spanish and Finnish syndications, and Bund auction.
  • The rise in German yields was roughly parallel across the curve at +2bp (5Y outperformed slightly), with the UK curve bear steepening.
  • Periphery and semi-core EGB spreads to Bunds tightened, with OATs leading the way for a 2nd consecutive session following strong demand at Tuesday's 15Y syndication.
  • Thursday's data slate is sentiment survey-focused, including French and EU confidence, with the UK GfK and CBI reports as well. 

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 2.1bps at 2.236%, 5-Yr is up 1.7bps at 2.335%, 10-Yr is up 2bps at 2.53%, and 30-Yr is up 2.2bps at 2.753%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 2.1bps at 4.355%, 5-Yr is up 1.4bps at 4.351%, 10-Yr is up 4.2bps at 4.632%, and 30-Yr is up 3.1bps at 5.182%.
  • Italian BTP spread down 1bps at 107.1bps / French OAT down 3.2bps at 73.8bps  

Historical bullets

GBPUSD TECHS: Challenges Key Support

Dec-23 18:30
  • RES 4: 1.3048 High Nov 6 and a key resistance
  • RES 3: 1.2961 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 bear leg  
  • RES 2: 1.2811 High Dec 6 and a short-term bull trigger 
  • RES 1: 1.2670/1.2729 20-day EMA / High Dec 17
  • PRICE: 1.2516 @ 16:32 GMT Dec 23 
  • SUP 1: 1.2476 Low Dec 20
  • SUP 2: 1.2446 Low May 9
  • SUP 3. 1.2400 Round number support
  • SUP 4: 1.2367 76.4% retracement of the Oct 4 ‘23 - Sep 26 uptrend   

A bearish trend structure in GBPUSD remains intact and last week’s move lower reinforces current conditions. Key support at 1.2487, the Nov 22 low, was pierced on Friday. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 1.2446 next, the May 9 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance to monitor is 1.2811, the Dec 6 high.  

STIR: FED Reverse Repo Operation

Dec-23 18:25

RRP usage climbs to $116.004B this afternoon from $98.356B last Friday - the lowest level since mid-April 2021. The number of counterparties climbs to 47 from 40 prior.

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 2Y Note Auction: On the Screws

Dec-23 18:04
  • Tsy futures holding near recent session lows after the $69B 2Y note auction (91282CME8) came out on the screws: 4.335% high yield vs. 4.335% WI; 2.73x bid-to-cover vs. 2.77x prior.
  • Indirect take-up climbed to 82.09% from 71.63% prior, directs slips to 6.65% vs. 19.17% prior, primary dealer take-up 11.26% vs. 9.20% prior.
  • The next 2Y auction is tentatively scheduled for January 27.