BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Rally Extends On Softening UK Jobs Data
Jun-10 18:44
European yields fell for the second day this week Tuesday, with Gilts outperforming Bunds.
- Gains were basically steady throughout the session, as some of last week's ECB-related selloff continued to reverse.
- Data out early in the session confirmed that the UK labour market is softening at an increasing pace, with AWE wage data on track to come in even lower in Q2 than the BOE’s Q1 forecast miss, and HMRC payrolls data pointing to growing slack. Our analysis of the release is here (PDF).
- The data saw BOE cut pricing rise to nearly 50bp for the year, up from 41bp prior.
- The UK curve leaned bull steeper, with the belly outperforming. Germany's bull flattened.
- Periphery / semi-core EGB spreads were mixed, with BTPs once again outperforming and 10Y now targeting the 90bp level vs Bunds.
- Wednesday is light for European data, with the main highlight expected to be the ECB Wage tracker. Most attention will be on US CPI. We also hear from ECB's Lane, Makhlouf, and Cipollone.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.7bps at 1.847%, 5-Yr is down 3.3bps at 2.123%, 10-Yr is down 4.4bps at 2.523%, and 30-Yr is down 4.2bps at 2.97%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 8.4bps at 3.919%, 5-Yr is down 9bps at 4.048%, 10-Yr is down 9bps at 4.542%, and 30-Yr is down 7.4bps at 5.254%.
- Italian BTP spread down 0.7bps at 91.3bps / French OAT unchanged at 67.2bps
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MACRO OUTLOOK: US PPI/Retail Sales And Powell Follow On Thursday [2/2]
May-09 20:17
- Core PCE implications will then be watched closely in Thursday’s PPI report, and we expect with additional focus on portfolio management after last month’s huge upward revision to February.
- Retail sales, whilst only reported in nominal terms, will offer a keenly awaited look at consumer behavior.
- Real spending moderated to 1.8% annualized in Q1 after 4.0% in Q4 despite likely tariff front-running, with April a good test of how much discretionary spending was pulled forward.
- Finally, Powell provides “Opening Remarks” at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, although he’s allotted twenty minutes so there is scope for more substantive remarks than you’d usually expect. His message at Wednesday’s FOMC press conference was one firmly of being in no hurry to cut rates amidst huge uncertainty. He also appeared to put more weight on hard data over soft indicators that appear more stagflationary in nature.
MACRO OUTLOOK: US CPI Offers Look At April Tariff Distortions on Tuesday [1/2]
May-09 20:15
- The week’s US data calendar is highlighted by CPI inflation on Tuesday although PPI inflation and retail sales reports on Thursday are in close second. All three releases are going to be important, offering further hard data for April in the first month under reciprocal tariffs. What’s more, PPI and retail sales are followed by Fed Chair Powell just ten minutes after their release (more on that below).
- Core CPI inflation is seen accelerating to 0.3% M/M in April, with six unrounded estimates we’ve seen to date averaging 0.27% M/M.
- A potential for a ‘low’ 0.3% aside, it’s still likely a swift acceleration from a particularly soft 0.06% M/M in March which was in large part down to surprisingly abrupt declines in lodging away from home (-3.5%) and airfare (-5.3%) prices.
- This lodging weakness carried over to core PCE inflation back in March, at just 0.03% M/M after a particularly strong 0.50% M/M in February in a large wedge with core CPI at 0.23% M/M.
- Markets currently price a next Fed cut with the September FOMC meeting.
USDCAD TECHS: Pressuring Resistance
May-09 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.4041 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3943 High May 9
- PRICE: 1.3930 @ 16:06 BST May 9
- SUP 1: 1.3751 Low May 6
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDCAD has recovered from its recent lows. Despite the recovery, the trend condition remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on Tuesday reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4041, the 50-day EMA.
