BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Multiple Factors Drive Bull Flattening

• Stocks remained mixed late Tuesday, weaker DJIA vs. continued gains in SPX eminis and Nasdaq indexes. Currently, the DJIA trades down 203.9 points (-0.48%) at 42207.72, S&P E-Minis up 48.75 points (0.83%) at 5914, Nasdaq up 315.1 points (1.7%) at 19023.13.
• Information Technology and Communication Services sectors continued to underpin the tech heavy Nasdaq and SPX eminis in late trade while health care and pharmaceutical stocks weighed heavily on the Dow after UnitedHealth announced it's CEO stepped down in addition to suspending its 2025 guidance, UNH shares falling over 15.75% earlier.
• As noted, health care stocks underperformed in late trade: UnitedHealth -16.44%, Elevance Health -8.28%, Humana -7.06%, CVS Health -5.22% and Molina Healthcare -4.14%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Staples sector was weighed by Hershey -2.40%, Kimberly-Clark -2.30%, Kroger -2.10%, Costco -1.88% and Target -1.82%.
• On the positive side chip stocks soared after the Trump administration said it was "considering a deal to allow the UAE to import over 1 million advanced Nvidia chips, exceeding limits under Biden-era AI chip regulations" Bbg reported. Leading gainers included: First Solar +20.41%, Super Micro Computer +15.48%, Palantir Technologies +8.80%, NVIDIA +5.74%, Western Digital +5.39%, Micron Technology +5.06% and Broadcom +4.47%.
• Oil and gas stocks supported the Energy sector as crude prices gained (WTI +1.75 at 63.70) after Pres Trump’s remarks in Riyadh that the US would drive Iranian oil exports to zero if they can’t come to an agreement. Leading gainers included Phillips 66 +5.79%, Valero Energy +4.25%, APA +4.04%, Targa Resources +3.67% and Marathon Petroleum +3.31%.

• Crude has climbed to its highest level since April 22, supported by further US threats against Iran’s energy industry. Earlier support came from optimism on trade war de-escalation.
• WTI Jun 25 is up by 2.9% at $63.7/bbl.
• The US State Department announced further sanctions targeting Iran’s oil trade, days after Iran and the US concluded a fourth round of nuclear talks in Iran.
• Today’s move has pierced key resistance at $63.56, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal, opening $66.41, the Apr 4 high.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has edged up by 0.3% to $3,247/oz, aided by the weaker dollar, following softer-than-expected US CPI data.
• In the very short-term, analysts at Saxo Bank say that gold will trade in a consolidation mode due to the major de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and China.
• Key short-term support to watch is $3,202.0, the May 1 low. A clear break of this level would undermine the short-term bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open $3,164.3, 61.8% of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg.
• Elsewhere, copper has rallied by 2.1% to $472/lb, buoyed by the weakness in the dollar.
• Key short-term resistance has been defined at $498.25, the Apr 23 high. A break of this is required to reinstate a bullish theme.
• A resumption of weakness would expose $436.00, the Apr 10 low, ahead of $407.40, the Apr 7 low and key support.

• RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2
• RES 2: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 1: 148.54/65 76.4% of Mar 28 - Apr 22 bear leg / High May 12
• PRICE: 147.76 @ 16:50 BST May 13
• SUP 1: 146.28/144.66 50- and 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 142.36 Low May 6 
• SUP 3: 141.97 Low Apr 29  
• SUP 4: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger

The primary trend condition in USDJPY is bearish and gains since Apr 22 appear corrective. This corrective cycle remains in play, for now. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.28, has been cleared, strengthening a bullish theme. The move high has exposed 148.54, a Fibonacci retracement (pierced). On the downside, a reversal lower would refocus attention on 142.36, May 6 low. A break of it would signal the end of the correction.