BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Gilts Underperform Again Post-UK CPI

May-21 17:12

Gilt underperformance vs Bunds extended for a second day Wednesday.

  • UK CPI data was firmer than expected, particularly services inflation, even when adjusting for Easter effects.
  • This drove a sell-off in Gilts which lasted throughout the morning, exacerbated by continued weakness in Treasuries.
  • Though UK yields closed off the highs, they (10Y) reached the highest levels since early April.
  • While Bunds weakened in sympathy with Gilts, the 10Y UK/Germany spread closed close above 210bp for the first time in a month.
  • Periphery / semi-core EGBs traded mixed, with Greece a notable outperformer.
  • At an MNI event this morning, ECB's Kazaks said that "If the current baseline holds, we will soon reach the terminal rate".
  • Thursday's data highlight is May flash PMIs, while we also get multiple speakers including BOE's Breeden, Pill, and Dhingra, and ECB's Nagel, Holzmann and Guindos (and the accounts of the April ECB meeting).

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 2.9bps at 1.871%, 5-Yr is up 4.2bps at 2.193%, 10-Yr is up 4bps at 2.646%, and 30-Yr is up 4.8bps at 3.136%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 4bps at 4.083%, 5-Yr is up 4.5bps at 4.241%, 10-Yr is up 5.4bps at 4.757%, and 30-Yr is up 6bps at 5.518%.
  • Italian BTP spread unchanged at 99.6bps /Greek down 1.8bps at 74bps

Historical bullets

LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Fed Speakers, Richmond Fed Data, 2Y Note Sale

Apr-21 16:34
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 22-Apr 0830 Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg Activity (-32.5, --)
  • 22-Apr 0900 Fed Gov Jefferson, Economic Mobility Summit
  • 22-Apr 0930 Philly Fed Harker, Economic Mobility Summit
  • 22-Apr 1000 Richmond Fed Mfg Index (-4, -6)
  • 22-Apr 1000 Richmond Fed Business Conditions (-14, --)
  • 22-Apr 1130 US Tsy $70B 6W bill auction
  • 22-Apr 1300 US Tsy $69B 2Y Note auction (91282CMY4)
  • 22-Apr 1340 MN Fed Kashkari Speaks moderated discussion
  • 22-Apr 1430 Richmond Fed Barkin fireside chat (no text, Q&A)
  • 22-Apr 1800 Fed Gov Kugler on Mon/Pol Transmission (text, Q&A)

US TSY FUTURES: BLCK: Jun'25 5Y Buy

Apr-21 16:01
  • +6,500 FVM5 108-16.25, buy through 108-15.75 post time offer at 1148:59ET, DV01 $267,000. The 5Y contract trades 108-15.75 last (+2.5)

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $5B Amex 4Pt Launched

Apr-21 15:57

Amex dropped the 6NC5 SOFR leg:

  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 04/21 $5B #American Express $1.6B 4NC3 +98, $400M 4NC3 SOFR+126, $1.5B 6NC5 +108, $1.5B 11NC10 +128
  • 04/21 $700M Excelerate Energy 5NC2
  • 04/21 $2B QXO Inc. 7NC3 investor calls