MEXICO: Economy Minister Ebrard in US Tomorrow to Continue Trade Talks

• RES 3: 96.064 - 61.8% retracement Oct ‘25 - Mar Downleg (cont) 
• RES 2: 95.925 - High Jan 9 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 95.670 - High Jun 25 / 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 95.425 @ 19:43 BST Aug 10
• SUP 1: 95.255/195 - Low Jul 24 / Low Apr 29 and 30 (cont)
• SUP 2: 95.035 - Low Mar 23 and key medium-term support (cont)  
• SUP 3: 94.530 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

A medium-term uptrend in Aussie 3-yr futures since Mar 23 remains intact and the pullback between Jun 25 - Jul 24 still appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would suggest scope for a move towards 95.195, the Apr 29 and 30 low on the continuation chart. The key medium-term support lies at 95.035 (cont), the Mar 23 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 95.670, the Jun 25 and 29 high.

• Monday’s FX session was all about the Japanese yen coming under renewed pressure, and most crosses extending the recovery from the post-intervention lows. Higher energy prices and firmer dollar have resulted in USDJPY rising 0.95% on the session to trade at 159.25 approaching the APAC crossover.
• Despite an early blip lower for USDJPY following reports from Kyodo surrounding a likely BOJ hike in September, the pair steadily edged higher on Monday. Spot now stands 400 pips off the 155.23 lows put in just last week. The next resistance point is located at 159.61, the 50.0% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 3 bear leg.
• Steady gains for crude futures across the US session have culminated in daily gains extending to around 5%. Trump’s latest social media post on compensation between the US and Iran, while not a game changer, highlights the complicated backdrop for ‘future’ negotiations. The ongoing strength for the energy complex, continues to provide a headwind for the Japanese yen, while the USD index has also recovered to a post-NFP high of 99.80. Fed’s Hammack also struck her usual hawkish tone.
• Moves outside of the yen remain moderate, with the likes of EUR, AUD and NZD falling around 0.15% against the greenback, and GBP remaining a relative outperformer but trimming prior gains to just 0.12%.
• Focus on Tuesday shifts to the RBA rate decision, where all surveyed analysts expect an unchanged decision. The decision is still likely to be a hawkish hold given underlying inflation remains well above the top of the 2-3% target band. US CPI is then due on Wednesday.

• "*HAMMACK: DON'T WANT TO PREJUDGE NUMBER OF HIKES, WHERE WE END" (BBG)
• "DON'T SEE INFLATION COMING BACK DOWN ON ITS OWN"
• "STILL NOT SEEING A PROBLEM WITH THE JOB MARKET"
• "MARKETS ARE COMPLEMENT FOR FED, NOT A SUBSTITUTE"
• "WE HAVE TO STAND BEHIND OUR WORDS WITH ACTIONS"