US STOCKS: Early Equities Roundup: No Data is Good Data? Record Index Highs

July's full Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, & Orders report showed core activity improving but overall settling in below the strong levels seen earlier in the year. In other words, activity is not as bad as it appeared in the post-tariff-front running hangover months of the summer, but likewise there doesn't appear to be an imminent upturn in manufacturing activity or equipment investment.

• While we caution against taking too much signal from month-to-month readings given significant volatility, July factory orders fell 1.3% M/M (-4.8% prior), with ex-transport orders rising 0.6% (0.4%), both exactly in line with consensus expectations.
• That's two consecutive sharp falls in overall manufacturing orders, and three in the last 4, leaving the seasonally-adjusted level at basically the same nominal dollar level it has hovered around since early 2022 (with the exception of the tariff front-running burst earlier this year). On a Y/Y basis, orders are up 3.5%.
• Ex-transportation (which for one thing strips out extremely volatile aircraft orders that have weighed heavily on overall orders the last couple of months) had its biggest rise in 16 months and grew for a 3rd consecutive month, but is up only 0.7% Y/Y. On a 3M/3M annualized basis, this moved back into positive territory for the first time in 4 months, albeit at just 0.7% (also).
• The ex-transport figure echoed the advance durable goods readings released previously which were largely confirmed in this final report, most notably core durable goods orders which rose 1.1% M/M and suggesting that underlying activity was regaining some footing after a weak few months.
• Durable and nondurable goods industries each make up about 50% of total factory orders. Durable orders are up 7.3% Y/Y but fell 2.8% M/M in July (on aircraft), while nondurables growth remained tepid at 0.3% M/M (-0.1% Y/Y).
• The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio fell from its 15-month high 7.01 in June to 6.87, though inventories-to-shipments edged down to the lowest since October 2022 at 1.56 (1.57 prior).

Consensus to tomorrow's print is a bit unevenly distributed, with 8 estimates for the median 0.2%, 5 estimates looking for a higher 0.3% print, only one analyst predicting 0.1% Y/Y, but two analysts looking for a low 0.0% print according to Bloomberg data.

• UBS sees 0.1% Y/Y, commenting "We expect our definition of core inflation (headline excluding energy and food) to fall by 0.3pp to 0.5% y/y, predominantly due to a 1pp drop in rents inflation (to 1.6% y/y) reflecting the pass-through of the March reference rate cut. Outside of core, we expect energy inflation to rise 0.6pp to -7.5% y/y, while food inflation is expected to go up 0.4pp to -0.2% y/y."

From a domestic perspective, we'd argue tomorrow's Swiss CPI print would need a significant surprise to meaningfully shift SNB expectations towards further easing. Meanwhile, unemployment rate data is unlikely to move the needle for the CHF.

Reuters reporting comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s wide-ranging press conference in Beijing. Putin confirms an invitation is "on the table" for President Donald Trump to visit Russia, but there are "no preparations" for such a trip at the moment.

• Putin said he is ready to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, if the Ukrainian leader came to Moscow, but questioned the “sense” of a meeting: “If meeting with Zelenskyy is well prepared, then I am ready to meet. Let Zelenskyy come to Moscow and the meeting will happen.”
• Putin said Russia is ready "if necessary" to raise the level of its negotiators in talks with Ukraine, appearing to acknowledge European criticism of the junior negotiating team dispatched to talks with Kyiv in recent Istanbul talks.
• Putin said Russian forces are “advancing on all fronts in Ukraine,” and said Ukraine is not capable of conducting large-scale offensive operations. Interfax notes that Putin said Russia is fighting for “people's right to speak their native [Russian] language,” in Ukraine, rather than territory.
• Putin's comments may be designed to raise optimism that Moscow is actively working towards a peace deal with Ukraine ahead of a key summit of European leaders in Paris tomorrow that is aimed at finalising security assurances for Kyiv.
• Zelenskyy said in a statement that he told Euro counterparts in Copenhagen today that the Russian economy "is in bad shape: fuel and labor shortages, many industries in decline. Putin constantly humiliates before China as he tries to sell them as much raw material as possible. This is telling – sanctions are working."