EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Czechia: Q2 GDP

• RES 4: 6300.00 Round number resistance       
• RES 3: 6281.12 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
• RES 2: 6277.50 High Feb 19 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 6255.00 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 6254.25 @ 07:21 BST Jun 30  
• SUP 1: 6069.53/5952.84 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5811.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5645.75 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5500.00 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the contract has started this week on a firm note. Short-term resistance and a bull trigger at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The clear break confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. The 6200.00 handle has been cleared too, this opens 6277.50, Feb 21 high and bull trigger. Key support is at the 50-day EMA - at 5952.84.

Swedish retail sales were notably weak in May, falling 4.8% M/M SWDA after a 6 tenth upwardly revised 1.5% prior. Although not mentioned in the press release, we suspect some seasonal/calendar adjustment quirks may have been at play, with the Ascension Day holiday falling very late in the month in 2025 due to the late Easter. However, it was still the weakest May SWDA print in at least 10 years, and will support the dovish stance set out by the Riksbank Executive Board at its June decision.

• 3m/3m retail sales growth turned negative for the first time in a year, at -0.6% (0.8% prior).
• All major sub-components fell on a sequential basis, most notably in clothing (-6.9% M/M SWDA).
• Although there may be some sequential payback next month, the broader outlook for retail trade appears bleak. The retail sentiment indicator fell sharply to 98.1 in Jue, from 103.3 in May.

• RES 4: $82.62 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.43 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing 
• RES 2: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $71.20/78.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-24 range / High Jun 23  
• PRICE: $65.21 @ 07:17 BST Jun 30 
• SUP 1: $64.58/00 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 
• SUP 2: $58.87 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.81 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.13 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures maintain a softer tone following the reversal from last Monday’s high. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.58. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range. Key resistance is at $78.40, the Jun 23 high.