RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Solar Forecast

Aug-29 06:31

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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

Jul-30 06:30
  • RES 4: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
  • RES 3: 6500.00 Round number resistance
  • RES 2: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
  • RES 1: 6457.75 High Jul 28      
  • PRICE: 6414.50 @ 07:18 BST Jul 30  
  • SUP 1: 6391.50/6322.32 Low Jul 24 / 20-day EMA  
  • SUP 2: 6241.00 Low Jul 16    
  • SUP 3: 6173.21 50-day EMA
  • SUP 4: 6130.75 Low Jun 25  

The trend set-up in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Recent cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 6477.31, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6173.21. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6322.32. 

EUROPEAN INFLATION: Spain HICP Scheduled At 08:00 BST, HICP Seen At 2.6% Y/Y

Jul-30 06:30

Spain July HICP is scheduled to be published today 08:00 BST. Consensus is for HICP to accelerate 0.3pp to 2.6% Y/Y (-0.4% M/M) and CPI 0.1pp firmer at 2.4% Y/Y (-0.4% M/M). Core CPI meanwhile is expected unchanged at 2.2% Y/Y.

Analyst views:

  • Goldman Sachs see “headline inflation [HICP] to increase to 2.5%yoy in July….and core inflation to decline to 2.2%yoy, implying a seasonally adjusted sequential pace of 0.29%mom, with a tick-up in the year-over-year core services component offset by a decline in the core goods component." They expect a package holidays sequential jump, as well as "a one-off decrease in passenger transport by rail component due to a re-introduction of government's 'Verano Joven' scheme" and firmer energy inflation at 3.0 Y/Y (-0.8% June).
  • In contrast, SocGen “forecast a 0.7pp increase in Spanish services inflation to 4.1% yoy, as the government has withdrawn most of its subsidised public transport that was introduced during the pandemic”.

In June, Spanish core HICP (ex-energy and unprocessed foods) was little changed at 2.22% Y/Y (vs 2.20% prior). Small rises in processed foods and non-energy industrial good inflation were mostly offset by an easing in services inflation.

  • Services inflation was 3.42% Y/Y (vs 3.47% prior). Although package holidays rose 10.76% M/M in June, this was below last year’s reading, allowing the annual rate to ease. Meanwhile, accommodation services pulled back to 4.92% Y/Y (vs 7.03% prior). Elsewhere, insurance inflation softened to 8.81% Y/Y (vs 9.51% prior), the lowest since May 2024.
  • Airfares were a large upside contributor in June, with domestic flight prices rising 24.96% M/M. Other services categories (including rents) were broadly steady on an annual basis.
  • Core goods inflation was 0.29% Y/Y (vs 0.24% prior), with a pullback in clothing inflation offset by rises in footwear, furniture and household appliances.

For reference, Spain accounts for 12% of EZ HICP in 2025.

  • The release is to be followed by data from Belgium later today. France, Italy and Germany are set to follow tomorrow ahead of the Netherlands and Eurozone-wide data Friday. For our full preview for the July inflation round, see here.

WTI TECHS: (U5) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

Jul-30 06:26
  • RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
  • RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
  • RES 2: $77.75 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
  • RES 1: $70.96/75.98 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-24 downleg / High Jun 23
  • PRICE: $69.08 @ 07:16 BST Jul 30 
  • SUP 1: $65.02/62.84 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 24 and bear trigger  
  • SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
  • SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
  • SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures traded higher yesterday highlighting an extension of the current corrective cycle. $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. On the downside, support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.02. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low.