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The trend set-up in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Recent cycle highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 6477.31, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6173.21. Support at the 20-day EMA is at 6322.32.
Spain July HICP is scheduled to be published today 08:00 BST. Consensus is for HICP to accelerate 0.3pp to 2.6% Y/Y (-0.4% M/M) and CPI 0.1pp firmer at 2.4% Y/Y (-0.4% M/M). Core CPI meanwhile is expected unchanged at 2.2% Y/Y.
Analyst views:
In June, Spanish core HICP (ex-energy and unprocessed foods) was little changed at 2.22% Y/Y (vs 2.20% prior). Small rises in processed foods and non-energy industrial good inflation were mostly offset by an easing in services inflation.
For reference, Spain accounts for 12% of EZ HICP in 2025.
WTI futures traded higher yesterday highlighting an extension of the current corrective cycle. $69.41, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg, has been pierced. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point. On the downside, support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.02. The average has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose $58.17, the May 30 low.