COMMODITIES: Crude Rises After Tanker Attacks, Precious Metals Dip

• RES 4: 0.7393 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low 
• RES 3: 0.7325 1.500 proj of the Apr 29 - May 1 - May 5 price swing  
• RES 2: 0.7223/78 High May 15 / 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.7161/7201 High Jun 5 / High May 29
• PRICE: 0.7053 @ 17:29 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 0.7038 Low Jun 5
• SUP 2: 0.7003 61.8% retracement of the Mar 30 - May 6 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 0.6986 Low Apr 13 
• SUP 4: 0.6938 76.4% retracement of the Mar 30 - May 6 bull leg

A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD on Friday highlights a clear break of the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.7128. The break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 0.7003, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that the bear cycle that started Jun 5 could still be a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.7201, the May 29 high.

• RES 4: 187.95 High Apr 17 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 187.56 High Apr 30
• RES 2: 186.56 76.4% retracement of the Apr 17 - May 6 bear leg  
• RES 1: 186.21 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 184.75 @ 17:17 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 184.50/184.06 Low Jun 5 / Low May 14  
• SUP 2: 183.50 Low May 07
• SUP 3: 182.05 Low May 06 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 181.87 Low Mar 16 

The short-term trend needle in EURJPY continues to point north and the sharp sell-off on Friday, appears corrective for now. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 186.56, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 182.05, the May 6 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important bearish development. Initial firm support to watch is 184.06, the May 14 low.

• RES 4: 161.46 1.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 3: 161.00 round number resistance 
• RES 2: 160.72 High Apr 30 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 160.34 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 160.27 @ 17:06 BST Jun 5
• SUP 1: 159.15 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 158.67/157.32 50-day EMA / Low May 14 
• SUP 3: 156.78 Low May 12
• SUP 4: 156.24 Uptrendline drawn off Apr’ 25 low

USDJPY traded higher last week and a bull cycle remains in play for now. Sights are on key resistance at 160.72, the Apr 30 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the uptrend. A break would also cancel a bear threat highlighted by the large bear candle on Apr 30. While price trades between the Apr 30 open and close (the candle body), it is possible that the recovery since May 6 is corrective. Initial firm support is 159.67, the 50-day EMA.