COMMODITIES: Crude Falls Further, Precious Metals Pull Back
Sep-04 18:29
- Oil prices have fallen further on Thursday despite a surprise US crude build as fears grow over potential further OPEC+ cut unwinds this weekend.
- WTI Oct 25 is down by 0.7% at $63.5/bbl.
- The US EIA said energy firms added 2.4mn barrels of crude into storage during the week ended August 29.
- A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest bull phase appears to have been a correction. Yesterday’s move down highlights a possible early reversal signal and the end of the corrective phase.
- Initial support is seen at $61.29, the Aug 13 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.
- Meanwhile, precious metals have pulled back today after this week’s strong rally, with spot gold down by 0.4% at $3,546/oz and silver falling by 1.6% to $40.6/oz.
- The move has come as the US dollar has ground slowly higher today, ahead of tomorrow’s highly significant US employment report.
- For gold, a clear bull cycle remains in play, with initial resistance at $3,578.5, the Sep 3 high, followed by the $3,600 handle next.
- Trend signals for silver are also still bullish, with the metal holding on to the bulk of this week’s gains. Sights are on the $42.0 handle next.
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US DATA: July SLOOS Doesn’t Move The Needle
Aug-05 18:24
Released yesterday at 1400ET having been made available at last week’s FOMC meeting, the July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) generally showed little change/a further tightening in lending standards in Q2 whilst loan demand was mixed. These are relatively small moves compared to those seen quarter-to-quarter during the pandemic and earlier in the post-pandemic period.
- For those lending to businesses in Q2, “survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter lending standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes. Furthermore, banks generally reported tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial real estate (CRE) loans.”
- The tightening in C&I loans was most pronounced for large & medium firms as it accelerated further after a brief pause back in Q4. The 18.5% net tightening of standards was the largest since late 2023.
- For those lending to households, “banks reported basically unchanged lending standards and weaker demand for residential mortgage loans, on balance. In addition, banks reported tighter lending standards and stronger demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). For consumer loans, standards tightened for credit card loans and remained basically unchanged for auto and other consumer loans. Meanwhile, demand weakened for credit card and other consumer loans and strengthened for auto loans.”
- Respondents for commercial & industrial loans saw some of the largest moves on the quarter:
SOFR OPTIONS: BLOCK: Dec'25 SOFR Puts
Aug-05 18:17
- 6,500 SFRZ5 95.68 puts, 0.75 ref 96.245 at 1408:46ET
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: 10Y Note Sale, Fed Speak
Aug-05 18:03
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 08/06 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-3.8%, --)
- 08/06 1130 US Tsy $65B 17W bill auction
- 08/06 1300 US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction (91282CNT4)
- 08/06 1400 Fed Gov Cook & Boston Fed Collins panel event (no text, Q&A)
- 08/06 1610 SF Fed Daly moderated discussion eco-summit
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
