SWITZERLAND DATA: CPI Analyst Consensus Skewed To The Upside [2/2]

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 147.67/148.65 High May 14 / 12 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 144.27/146.28 20-day EMA / May 29 high   
• PRICE: 142.95 @ 06:59 BST Jun 3
• SUP 1: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key support
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

A bear cycle in USDJPY remains in play and recent weakness reinforces current conditions. A reversal price pattern on May 29 - a shooting star candle - signals the end of the correction between May 27 - 29. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 146.28, the May 29 high. Sights are on 142.12, the May 27 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and open 139.89, the Apr 22 low.

• RES 4: 92.53 High May 8 (cont) 
• RES 3: 92.40 Low May 8      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.87/89 High May 20 / 27 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 91.55 @ Close Jun 2
• SUP 1: 90.59 Low May 29
• SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)        

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play. The contract has recovered from its recent lows - gains are still considered corrective and this has allowed a short-term oversold condition to unwind. The bear trigger has been defined at 90.11, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 91.87, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal.

Austria, Germany, Spain and France still look to hold auctions this week. Slovakia and the EU already held auctions yesterday. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week of E29.8bln, down from E50.0bln last week.

For the full document with a recap of issuance so far this week and a look ahead to the rest of this week's and next week's issuance, click here.

• Today, Austria will look to hold an RAGB auction. It will be looking to sell up to a combined E1.4375bln of the on-the-run 10-year 2.95% Feb-35 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3HU25) as we expected alongside the 2.90% May-29 Green RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A33SH3).
• Germany will also come to the market today with E4.5bln of the 1.70% Jun-27 Schatz (ISIN: DE000BU22098) on offer.
• Spain will look to hold a Bono/Obli/ObliEi auction on Thursday with a combined E5.0-6.0bln of nominals on offer including both of the on-the-run Bonos (as we expected): the 2.40% May-28 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O59) and the 2.70% Jan-30 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O00) as well as the off-the-run the 0.70% Apr-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K20). Additionally, E0.25-0.75bln of the 2.05% Nov-39 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES0000012M69) will also be on offer. Given the recent syndicated launch of the new 10-year 3.20% Oct-35 Obli, we were expecting to see short duration issues on offer here.
• France will look to conclude issuance for the week, also on Thursday, with a LT OAT auction. On offer will be E10.0-12.0bln combined of the on-the-run 10-year 3.20% May-35 OAT (ISIN: FR001400X8V5), the 1.25% May-36 OAT (ISIN: FR0013154044) and the on-the-run 30-year 3.75% May-56 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XJJ3).