US INFLATION: Core PCE Consensus Dips To Just Under 0.3% After PPI Details
Analyst core PCE estimates have been tweaked a little lower after the PPI details, but perhaps by a ...
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USDCAD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.3861/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
- RES 1: 1.3732 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3555 @ 17:25 BST Jun 16
- SUP 1: 1.3535 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 2: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
- SUP 4: 1.3410 1.764 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
The trend needle in USDCAD continues to point south and fresh cycle lows last week and again today, reinforce a bearish theme. Support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and a bear trigger, has been cleared, confirming a resumption of the downtrend. This maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.3535 next, envelope-based support, and 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection.Resistance at the 20-day EMA is at 1.3732.
FED: Instant Answers For June FOMC Meeting
The Instant Answers questions that we have selected for the June FOMC statement and projections are as follows (due to be released at 1400ET Wednesday):
- Federal Funds Rate Range Maximum
- Number of dissenters on size of rate move
- Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2025
- Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2026
- Median Longer Run Projection of Fed Funds Rate
- Number of 2025 Dots > 4.375%
- Number of 2025 Dots > 4.125%
- Number of 2025 Dots > 3.875%
- Number of 2025 Dots < 3.875%
FED: Analysts See 0 To 100bp Of Cuts This Year, Up To 175bp Through 2026 (2/2)
Going into the June FOMC meeting, the median analyst is forecasting the Fed to deliver just 1 cut this year for 25bp of easing, but there is a wide range of opinions which includes 100bp of cuts (UBS) to zero (multiple). See table below.
- Opinion is accordingly split among most analysts about whether the next cut is in September, October, or December.
- The median analyst expectation is for 75bp of cuts in 2026, though again this ranges from no cuts to 175bp of easing (Morgan Stanley).
- The median analyst who has forecasts through both years sees 112.5bp of cuts, or between 4-5.
- UBS and Morgan Stanley see the most total easing (175bp), while BofA sees no further cuts.
