EU CONSUMER STAPLES: Consumer/Transport: Fitch Downgrade Exposure (None)

EURNOK overnight ATM option vols are modestly bid ahead of tomorrow’s Norges Bank decision, but remain below prevailing levels seen before the March, May and June decisions earlier this year. That sees an overnight straddle expiring at tomorrow’s NY cut requiring a 50 pip swing in either direction to break even.

• Moving average studies in EURNOK are currently in a bull-mode setup, but a move towards the upper breakeven from current spot levels would closely align with the psychological 12.0000 handle. This level has provided a weak ceiling for the cross going back to 2023. Meanwhile, the lower breakeven lies above initial support at the 20-day EMA (11.8699 today).
• With a rate hold at 4.25% fully priced and unanimously expected, a significant market reaction would require material deviations from the existing guidance language, either in the policy statement or post-decision press conference.
• Our base case is that the June guidance is maintained, but are cognisant of the potential for a surprise after Norges Bank’s out-of-consensus decisions already this year.
• MNI’s full Norges Bank preview is here .

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• At 11:15 ET 16:15 BST, Trump will deliver remarks at the Kennedy Center. He is expected to announce annual honours recipients, but could touch on other market-relevant issues. Trump will sign Executive Orders at 16:00 ET 21:00 BST.  
• As of this morning, the National Guard has deployed across DC.
• At 09:00 ET 14:00 BST, Trump will join Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders for an emergency virtual summit to discuss Trump’s upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. We have a rundown of what to expect inside.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said the Fed should be open to a 50 basis-point cut in the benchmark interest rate. Bessent said he hopes CEA Chair Stephen Miran will be confirmed to the Fed board in time for the September policy meeting.
• Trump’s nominee to lead the BLS, EJ Antoni, has received a lukewarm reception from economists across the political spectrum. Antoni faces an uncertain Senate confirmation process.
• The Republican Chair of the House Select Committee on China criticised Trump’s semiconductor revenue-sharing deal.
• Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown confirmed he will run for re-election, boosting Democrats’ long-shot chance of flipping the Senate.
• The State Department's human rights report on Brazil highlights domestic political issues that the Trump administration used to justify a 50% tariff rate.
• Poll of the Day: Small business optimism rose in July to slightly above the 52-year average.

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF

JP Morgan believe the underlying drivers of bullish EURUSD views remain in play, which improves the backdrop for further strength and suggests “a test of our 1.22 target is still reasonable”.

• They write that “even though the market-observed EUR/USD level has been range-bound, its fair value based on real yields and other drivers has steadily risen to 1.14, from 1.09 two months ago”. Breaking down the key drivers of EURUSD strength: “The EU/ German fiscal impact on EUR/USD remains unchanged but is already in the price; US moderation should be worth more, as should concerns around Fed independence. The Ukraine / Russia ceasefire should still provide a boost of ~2.5% if realised, but the bar for delivery is high”.
• JP Morgan note that “beyond the euro, the macro landscape remains conducive to USD weakness as it is characterised by declining US real yields, US growth catch-down, asymmetric risks around Fed easing, concerns about Fed independence and improving growth momentum ex-US”.
• Prior to yesterday’s US CPI report, Bank of America also recommended EURUSD longs, targeting 1.20 (spot ref 1.1612, stop 1.1392). They noted that “mixed US data over the past few months has injected two-way risk, but we view the more recent July data (NFP and ISM Svc in particular) as reigniting stagflationary concerns; something we view as USD negative”. On the EUR leg, they believe “the bar for positive European surprises on the policy/economic front is low (and even lower than before)”.