US DATA: Consumer Remains Strong, But Services Demand Shows Signs Of A Slowdown

Dec-20 14:30

Spending growth remained steady in November, and while Incomes were robust, they cooled from an unusually strong October. While this was a solid report for the consumer, it was on the soft side of expectations, and there are signs that spending on services - which makes up the lion's share of PCE - is moderating.

  • The rise in income / disposable income (both 0.3% M/M, 0.7% prior) understated the pickup in employee compensation (an 8-month high 0.6%).
  • Spending's rise of 0.4% M/M (0.3% prior) reflected an acceleration in goods purchases (+0.8% from -0.1%), but services spending saw the slowest growth (0.2%, 0.6% prior) in 15 months.
  • Real spending came in at 0.3% M/M, an acceleration from 0.1% prior, versus real disposable income growth of 0.2%, down from 0.5% prior (which was a 9-month high, leaving November's figure as closer to recent trends). The household savings ratio dipped to 4.4% from 4.5%, but these figures are often substantially revised so we take little short-term signal from them.
  • These figures (and the corresponding price metrics) were on the soft side of expectations, but they should be put into the context of longer-term trends:
  • Income growth is up 4.7% on a 3M/3M annualized basis, fastest since May 2024; real spending growth is up 3.6% on that basis - remaining well above the longer-run trend - with Y/Y at 2.9%. To put into context, Q3 GDP PCE printed 3.7%, and this is calculated on this basis, so there is no evident slowdown in consumption in Q4.
  • If there is any worrying sign for the consumer in this report, it's in the composition of spending in real terms: goods (one-third of PCE) growing by an accelerating amount (5.9% 3M/3M ar, a 20-month high, and 3.4% Y/Y), but the more important services category showing some slowing signs (3M/3M 2.6%, slowest in 12 months, and Y/Y 2.7%, slowest in 8 months).
PCEDec2024

Historical bullets

EQUITIES: US Cash open

Nov-20 14:28

Some added focus on the US Equity open, before the latest Ukraine headline that push Indices lower, Desks will be watching Home Depot, now down 17.7% pre Market, and Tech (NVIDIA) ahead of earnings after the close.

  • Calls: Fair: SPX: 5,919.6 (+0.0%); DJIA: 43,299 (+0.1%/+30pts); NDX: 20,685.7 (+0.0%).

US TSYS: Knee-Jerk Risk-Off Bounce as Geopol Tension Rises

Nov-20 14:27

Bit of a risk-off reaction to headline that Ukraine has fired another missile into Russia - reportedly a Storm Shadow missile "a Franco-British low-observable, long-range air-launched cruise missile developed since 1994 by Matra and British Aerospace."

The Dec'24 10Y contract bounced 5 tics from 109-15 to 109-20 before settling back to 109-17.5 (-9.5). Stocks reacted negatively, SPX Eminis traded down to 5932.5.

EQUITY TECHS: (Z4) Outlook Remains Bullish

Nov-20 14:27
  • RES 4: 6145.26 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing
  • RES 3: 6103.88 1.500 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing   
  • RES 2: 6070.16 1.382 projection of the Sep 6 - 17 - 18 price swing
  • RES 1: 5974.25/6053.25 High Nov 15 / 11 and the bull trigger      
  • PRICE: 5940.75 @ 14:15 GMT Nov 20
  • SUP 1: 5855.00 Low Nov 19      
  • SUP 2: 5834.60 50-day EMA 
  • SUP 3: 5724.25 Low Nov 4 and a key support   
  • SUP 4: 5675.25 Low Sep 18

The latest move lower in the S&P E-Minis contract appears corrective. Medium-term trend signals such as moving average studies, continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA. The next key support to monitor is 5834.60, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 6053.25, Nov 11 high.