TURKEY: Commerzbank Comment on Increasing Scrutiny Against Finance Minister
Commerzbank have published a note in which they point to increasing “allegations and scrutiny from different quarters” against Finance Minister Simsek. They say this suggests that vested interests in the business sector might be impacted by the economic programme and might be lobbying President Erdogan for an end to high interest rates.
- They also refer to allegations about Simsek's private business dealings and mounting pressure because of his economic plan itself - inflation has yet to soften discernibly while interest rates near 50%.
- Commerzabank flag open criticism from prominent business leaders, including the Istanbul Chamber of Industry alleging that his policies place an unsustainable stress on industries, and the president of the Union of chambers and commodity exchanges of Turkey issuing uncharacteristically harsh public criticism, which hints at a fracture in traditional support.
- Commerzbank say there are two risks: 1) there is a recognised possibility of Simsek becoming a political scapegoat in case of erosion in support for president Erdogan, and 2) there is no way around having to endure an economic downturn if Turkey’s inflation problem has to be solved.
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COMMODITIES: Gold Hits New Record High Above $3500 Mark
A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9 is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Recent weakness has resulted in the breach of a number of important support levels, reinforcing a bearish threat. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $53.72, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.49, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level. The trend needle in Gold continues to point north and this week’s fresh cycle highs confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. The yellow metal has traded to another fresh all-time high. Note too that moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next objective is $3499.0, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 3163.5, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude up $0.97 or +1.54% at $64.05
- Natural Gas up $0.02 or +0.73% at $3.038
- Gold spot up $25.06 or +0.73% at $3449.28
- Copper up $2.15 or +0.45% at $480.3
- Silver down $0.31 or -0.94% at $32.376
- Platinum up $5.03 or +0.52% at $971.03
EQUITIES: Eurostoxx 50 Futures Remain Contained Within Last Week's Range
Eurostoxx 50 futures continue to trade above their recent lows. The latest bounce highlights a corrective cycle and this is allowing an unwinding of the recent oversold trend condition. Resistance levels to watch are 4978.63, the 20-day EMA, and 5113.20, the 50-day EMA. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 4444.00, the Apr 7 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. A reversal higher in S&P E-Minis on Apr 9 highlighted the start of a correction. The trend condition has been oversold following recent weakness and gains have allowed this to unwind. The contract remains below important resistance points and the trend condition is bearish. The latest move down signals the end of the corrective cycle. Sights are on 4832.00, the Apr 7 low and bear trigger. Initial resistance to watch is 5437.24, the 20-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 59.32 pts or -0.17% at 34220.6 and the TOPIX ended 3.19 pts higher or +0.13% at 2532.12.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 8.323 pts or +0.25% at 3299.757 and the HANG SENG ended 167.18 pts higher or +0.78% at 21562.32.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 72.32 pts or -0.34% at 21136, FTSE 100 higher by 17.73 pts or +0.21% at 8293.69, CAC 40 down 39.22 pts or -0.54% at 7246.64 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 23.44 pts or -0.47% at 4911.9.
- Dow Jones mini up 340 pts or +0.89% at 38668, S&P 500 mini up 53 pts or +1.02% at 5237.75, NASDAQ mini up 193.25 pts or +1.08% at 18114.25.
EQUITIES: EU Bank Risk Reversal
SX7E (19th Dec) 125/220RR, bought the put for 1.85 in 6k.
