EM LATAM CREDIT: Colombia's Grupo Nutresa (Baa3 /NR /BB+) Fair Value , New Issue

A contrast in the readings of both soft/anecdotal and hard data by both an FOMC dove and a hawkish-leaning member today suggested that the Fed has no firm conclusions about the way the next few months are going to pan out in terms of government policy and the private sector response. They appear to be seeing and hearing different things anecdotally and in the data. Overall, it seems to reinforce that the FOMC is nowhere near reaching a decision to cut rates - and suggests that as we look forward to Chair Powell's comments this Friday, we are unlikely in the near future to get a significant steer on the path ahead.

• SF Fed President Daly wrote overnight that "during my visit [to Fairbanks, Alaska], I saw how businesses and households are managing uncertainty around trade and fiscal policy. Businesses and consumers are still making plans and moving forward. And most of the people I spoke with recognize the fundamental strength and resilience of the economy. They are leaning into solid demand, a good labor market, and lower interest rates. This is very similar to what I’ve heard across the Twelfth District. Overall, businesses in the region... are continuing to invest and participate in the economy. Right now, my assessment is this: uncertainty isn't causing paralysis."
• This can be interpreted through the lens of the data not showing signs of weakness just yet, with last year's rate cuts feeding through to activity - as such the burden of proof is more on inflation than on employment at this point (Daly last week: "One hundred percent of my focus is on what's happening with inflation"). Still, she sees 2 25bp rate cuts this year as "reasonable", suggesting that if the growth outlook were to deteriorate more than she expects, she could see more cuts (last week she said confidence has "gotten a little shaky of late; it could end up being that translates into changes in hiring plans, etcetera that could slow the economy more that we would like to see, and put it into a situation where there's more challenges and that would call for maybe a different posture.")
• Richmond Fed President Barkin took a slightly different angle this morning, saying that while GDP was a little softer in Q1, "the numbers are not really the story. The story is uncertainty....what are you going to do in the fog? And I talked to businesses, I've talked to consumers. And it's even true for the Fed.  You don't know where policy is going to land. You don't know what the implications of that are going to be. And it's very hard to make investment decisions, hiring decisions, spending decisions with that amount of uncertainty. And so, you know, financial markets will tell us what they think as opposed to me telling them. But I have to think that part of the flattening of the rate curve has been pricing in more recession risk."
• He probably has a more hawkish stance on rates (zero or one cut this year, based on his previous comments) than Daly, despite her apparent lack of concern over the economy.

• RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.4415 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.4313 @ 16:08 BST Apr 1
• SUP 1: 1.4309 Low Apr 01 and a key support  
• SUP 2: 1.4151 Low Feb 14
• SUP 3: 1.4107 50.0% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24

USDCAD traded sharply lower into the close, erasing much of the week’s early gains. This puts prices through the 50-day EMA support and makes for a 100 pip drop off the intraday high. A return lower and clearance of 1.4235, the Mar 26 low, would undermine the bull theme and highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies, however, continue to highlight a dominant uptrend - and a stronger rally would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.

The Chicago Fed's preliminary CARTS (Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary) report out today estimates a pickup in US ex-auto retail and food services sales in March to 0.7% M/M SA, from 0.3% prior. 

• This comes despite a 0.4% W/W decline in the last week of March, following on from a 0.6% decline the prior week - given a very strong opening to the month (the 2nd week saw sales rise 1.1%). These figures roughly collaborate the trajectory seen in in March's Johnson Redbook retail data.
• This is scheduled to be updated a day before the March Census Bureau retail sales releast (on Apr 16). Per the Chicago Fed, "The index summarizes weekly data on retail transactions & foot traffic, gasoline sales, and consumer sentiment, and is used to project current monthly retail & food services sales ex. auto."
• While most indicators of retail sales so far look solid in March, we take this release with some skepticism: CARTS missed the mark badly in February, estimating an 0.8% M/M decline in ex-auto retail sales, vs the +0.3% actual reading  (which was in line with consensus).