EU REAL ESTATE: Cofinimmo: Q3 Results Headlines (COFBBB; NR/BBB*+/NR)

• RES 4: 92.30 High Aug 7
• RES 3: 92.06 High Aug 14      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.11/82 High Sep 22 / 11
• PRICE: 90.92 @ Close Sep 23
• SUP 1: 90.65/60 Low Sep 2 / 22 
• SUP 2: 90.31/89.36 Low Sep 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 89.22 1.618 proj of the Aug 21 - 27 - 28 price swing 
• SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support   

Despite the latest pullback from its recent highs, Gilt futures remain in a bull cycle and a recent rally highlights a stronger corrective cycle. Note that the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Price has breached initial firm resistance at 90.84, the Aug 28 and 29 high. A resumption of gains would  open 92.06, the Aug 14 high. Initial support to monitor lies at 90.65 (pierced), the Sep 5 low.

Italy and Germany will hold auctions today and Italy return on Friday to conclude issuance for the week. The Netherlands held a DDA and Portugal a syndication yesterday while the EU, Belgium and Germany held auctions this week. We pencil in issuance of E40.0bln for the week, up from E27.7bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Supply Daily with a recap of issuance so far this week and a look ahead to this week and next week's issuance, click here.

• Italy will look to hold a BTP Short Term / BTPei auction today with E2.0-2.5bln of the on-the-run 2.10% Aug-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005657330), E1.00-1.25bln of the 1.10% Aug-31 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005657348) and E1.00-1.25bln of the 2.40% May-39 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005547812) on offer.
• Germany will return to the market today with E4bln of the 7-year 2.50% Nov-32 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU27014) on offer.
  • The launch auction on 27 August was very soft with only E3.170bln of bids received for the intended E4.0bln transaction. Today’s auction will be for the same E4bln size but we note that in Q4 there will only be one auction with a smaller E3bln size. If there was more flexibility in the DFA’s funding programme we expect today’s auction would have been downsized after the first was held, too.
• Italy will conclude issuance for the month on Friday with a 5/10-year BTP / CCTeu auction, selling E3.5-4.0bln of a new 5-year 2.85% Feb-31 BTP (ISIN: TBA), E1.5-2.0bln of the on-the-run 3.60% Oct-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005648149), E1.00-1.25bln of the 4.00% Apr-35 BTP Green (ISIN: IT0005508590) and E1.0-1.5bln of the Apr-34 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005652828).
  • Ahead of the announcement we had noted that we thought there would be a final reopening of the 2.70%
    Oct-30 BTP with a10-year BTP launch more likely. However, we had also raised the prospect of a smaller final tap of the 3.60% Oct-35 BTP alongside another issue in the 10-year area (which the BTP Green is).

• MNI CHINA MONEY MKT INDEX SEP LQDTY OUTLOOK 46.9 VS AUG 48.9
• MNI CHINA MMI CURRENT LQDTY CONDITIONS SEP 41.8 VS AUG 37.2
• MNI CHINA MMI ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SEP 40.8 VS AUG 56.4