US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Cleveland Fed Staff On PCE Inflation Residual Seasonality
Mar-26 14:08
- The concept of residual seasonality, whereby data exhibit a seasonal pattern even after adjustment (and seemingly especially so for inflation data), has been a contentious topic.
- Cleveland Fed’s Lunsford finds evidence of residual seasonality across five measures of PCE inflation (headline, core, market-based core, median and trimmed mean) when looking across data from 1987 to Jan 2025. Full note here.
- “For core and market-based core PCE inflation, average inflation in January has been 1.5 to 2.0 times higher than in November and December, again, depending on the sample period.”
- “Following the high inflation from 2021 through 2023, these residual seasonal fluctuations can complicate assessments of monthly data, making it hard to know if inflation is returning sustainably to 2 percent.”
- The research finds the most prominent upward bias is in January alone rather than seeing any lingering into February.
- We note that for February as it comes ahead of Friday’s February report which sees core PCE inflation at 0.3% M/M but perhaps only just rounding down to this rate according to unrounded estimates. It follows 0.285% M/M in Jan, 0.21% in Dec and 0.10% in Nov (before any revisions).
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Issuance Roundup: Chevron 7Pt on Tap
Feb-24 14:04
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 02/24 $800M NSTAR WNG 5Y +85a, 10Y +110a
- 02/24 $750M Vale Overseas WNG 2054 tap +195a
- 02/24 $500M CenterPoint Energy WNG 5Y +80
- 02/24 $500M Entergy Texas WNG 10Y +115a
- 02/24 $Benchmark Chevron 2Y +50a, 2Y SOFR, 3Y +55a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +70a, 7Y +75a, 10Y +85a
- 02/24 $Benchmark Georgia Power 1.5Y SOFR+60a, 6Y +85a, 10Y +105a
- 02/24 $Benchmark Pacific Gas & Electric 10Y +155a, 30Y +175a
- 02/24 $Benchmark Targa Resources +10Y +140a, 30Y +170a
- 02/24 $Benchmark American Water Capital 10Y +110a
- 02/24 $Benchmark Marriott Int 7Y +120a, 12Y +145a
- 02/24 $Benchmark LPLA Holdings 5Y +125a, 10Y +150a
- 02/24 $Benchmark Citizens Financial 6NC5 +125a
MNI: BELGIUM FEB BNB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE -12.3
Feb-24 14:00
- MNI: BELGIUM FEB BNB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE -12.3
EUROZONE DATA: Belgium Business Confidence Rises Above 2024 Average
Feb-24 14:00
The Belgium Business Confidence index rose for the second consecutive month to -12.3 in February (vs -13.0 consensus, -13.6 prior). This is the highest reading since November 2024. It is now above the 2024 average of -12.5.
- The sector breakdown was mixed, with industry and commerce improving against deteriorations in services and construction.
- Note the Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is expected to rise for the second consecutive month as well to 95.9 according to Bloomberg consensus and is due for release later this week.
Related by topic
US
