EURGBP TECHS: Clears The 50-Day EMA

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 05/12 $4B #UPS $500M +5Y +55, $1.25B 10Y +82, $1.25B 30Y +107, $1.25B 40Y +117
• 05/12 $3B #US Bank $1.25B 3NC2 +73, $500M 3NC2 SOFR+91, $1.25B 6NC5 +98
• 05/12 $2.25B #Toyota Motor Cr $1B 2Y +53, $500M 2Y SOFR+71, $750M 5Y +73
• 05/12 $2B #Caterpillar $1.7B 10Y +78, $300M 30Y +80
• 05/12 $1.1B #Southern California Gas $600M 10Y +105, $500M 30Y +120
• 05/12 $1B Carnival Cruise Line 6NC
• 05/12 $1B #ENI 10Y +140
• 05/12 $800M #Pinnacle West Capital $400M 3Y +93, $400M 5Y +108
• 05/12 $750M #Ally Financial 4NC3 +175
• 05/12 $700M #Lennar 5Y +110
• 05/12 $500M #EIDP WNG 7Y +92
• 5/12 $500M Crown Americas 8NC3 6$
• 05/12 $500M #Blue Owl Capital WNG 5Y +235
• 05/12 $725M #Commonwealth Edison 30Y +105
• 05/12 $Benchmark Woodside Finance TBA
• 05/12 $Benchmark L'Oreal 10Y investor calls

• -6,378 TUM5 103-10.12, sell through 103-10.38 post time bid at 1346:20ET.
• The 2Y contract trades 103-10.25 last (-7.25).

Fed Gov Kugler continued to promote a patient outlook on rate cuts in a speech Monday, saying that "I view our current stance of monetary policy as well positioned for any changes in the macroeconomic environment." 

• She noted re last week's rate hold that "given the upside risks to inflation and given that I still view our policy stance as somewhat restrictive, I supported the decision...with inflation and employment potentially moving in opposite directions down the road, I will closely monitor developments as I consider the future path of policy".
• The post-speech Q&A revolved largely around inflation and tariffs. “If tariffs remain significantly larger relative to earlier in the year, the same is likely to be true for the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth." She says she "definitely" sees an "increase in prices and a slowdown in the economy", though "not to the same extent as before" the just-announced China-US tariff de-escalation.
• As such on rates "my basic outlook in some sense may have changed [since the US-China truce] in terms of the extent to which we need to use our tools - the magnitude - but not in the direction."
• She cites multiple factors potentially creating permanence in some of the price increases generated from tariffs. Productivity and market competition could decline. And Inflation expectations would also play a key role.
• Indeed, Kugler discussed inflation expectations at length: she was watching the dispersions of expectations in surveys; and that "we haven't seen" second-hand inflation in the form of higher wage demands. She also says that "really the only measure so far" where there has been an increase in longer-run inflation expectations is the University of Michigan survey, but she hints at some skepticism over the survey methodology and points to being "comforted by the fact that in other surveys you're not seeing it yet".