OIL PRODUCTS: China’s Dec Refined Oil Exports Halved on Month: OilChem
Jan-03 11:28
China exported 1.07m mt of refined oil in December, around half of the levels over the previous month according to shipping fixtures, OilChem said.
- The exports consisted of 0.63m mt of gasoline, 0.13 m mt of gasoil, and 0.31m mt of jet fuel.
- The exports are mostly with general trade mode and exclude those exported to the bonded zone, OilChem added.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Resistance Remains Intact
Dec-04 11:24
- In FX, key short-term resistance in EURUSD to watch is 1.0590, the 20-day EMA. It remains intact and Monday’s move lower reinforces the short-term importance of this resistance. A clear break of it is required to signal potential for a stronger recovery. This would open 1.0730, the 50-day EMA and allow for a continued unwinding of the oversold trend condition. The medium-term trend direction is down. The bear trigger lies at 1.0335, the Nov 22 low.
- Recent gains in GBPUSD are considered corrective and the move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Initial firm resistance is 1.2718, the 20-day EMA and a key short-term hurdle for bulls. It has been pierced, a clear break of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery. The medium-term trend direction is down, with moving average studies in a bear-mode set-up. The bear trigger is 1.2487, the Nov 22 low.
- USDJPY traded to a fresh short-term cycle low yesterday, confirming a resumption of the current bear cycle and retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 rally. The pair has recently traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs - a bearish development. Sights are on 148.17, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 bull leg. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 156.75, the Nov 15 high. Initial firm resistance is 152.30, the 20-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: ADP, ISMs, Fed Speak Includes Chair Powell
Dec-04 11:24
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Dec-4 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (6.3%, --)
- Dec-4 0815 ADP Employment Change(233k, 150k)
- Dec-4 0845 StL Fed Musalem moderated discussion (text, Q&A)
- Dec-4 0900 Richmond Fed Barkin CNBC interview
- Dec-4 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (57.0, 57.0)
- Dec-4 0945 S&P Global US Composite PMI (55.3, 55.3)
- Dec-4 1000 ISM Services Index (56.0, 55.7)
- Dec-4 1000 ISM Services Prices Paid (58.1, 5.0)
- Dec-4 1000 ISM Services Employment (53.0, 53.0)
- Dec-4 1000 ISM Services New Orders (57.4, 56.6)
- Dec-4 1000 Factory Orders (-0.5%, 0.2%); ex-trans (0.1%, --)
- Dec-4 1000 Durable Goods Orders (0.2%, 0.2%); ex-trans (0.1%, 0.1%)
- Dec-4 1000 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (-0.2%, -0.2%); Ship (0.2%, --)
- Dec-4 1130 US Tsy $64B 17W Bill auction
- Dec-4 1340 Fed Chairman Powell moderated discussion NY Times (no text, Q&A)
- Dec-4 1400 Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
- Dec-4 1800 SF Fed Daly PBS interview
NORWAY: House Price Growth Exceeds Norges Projection In Nov; Govt Raises LTV Cap
Dec-04 11:20
Norwegian existing house prices rose 0.4% M/M SA in November, two tenths above Norges Bank’s September MPR projection. All else equal, the trajectory of existing home prices since September should have a small upward effect on the December MPR rate path. On a 3m/3m basis, house price growth ticked up to 1.0% (vs 0.9% in October, 0.8% in September).
- Eiendom Norge notes that “the large sales volume we have seen throughout 2024 has continued in November, and far more homes have been sold so far this year than at the same time in 2022 and 2023. We expect the strong volume in the second-hand housing market to continue in the future”.
- New home supply has been restricted by high construction costs and interest rates, and Norges Bank expects prices for existing homes to continue rising "on the back of a low supply of new homes, increased household purchasing power and lower residential mortgage rates".
- This morning, the Norwegian Finance ministry announced plans to lower to equity requirements for mortgages to 10% from 15%, in order to improve accessibility for first-time buyers. This means the loan-to-value ratio cap has been raised to 90% from 85% prior (in line with Norges Bank recommendations in the H2 2024 Financial Stability Report).
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