US DATA: Chicago Business Barometer™ - Slowed To 40.5 In May

May-30 13:45

The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, slowed 4.1 points to 40.5 in May. This was the second consecutive fall, bringing the index to its lowest level since January. The index has now been below 50 for eighteen consecutive months.

  • The decrease was driven by a fall in New Orders, Order Backlogs and Production. Supplier Deliveries and Employment rose relative to April.
  • New Orders trimmed 6.0 points, and are now 13.0 points below March’s high of the year.
  • Production softened 4.0 points to 43.9, falling below the 12-month average for the first time since January.
  • Employment rose 8.3 points to 45.9, the highest reading, and largest increase, since December. This was driven by more firms keeping employment levels unchanged rather than reducing employment.
  • Order Backlogs fell 8.5 points, matching November’s reading. There has not been a lower reading since May 2024.
  • Supplier Deliveries increased 5.3 points.
  • Inventories contracted 2.3 points, but remains comfortably above March’s 34.8 reading.
  • Prices Paid narrowed 1.5 points to 76.5. This component has been above 70 for four consecutive months. As has been the case since February, no respondents reported lower prices paid in May. 
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Historical bullets

US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK Jun'25 5Y Sale

Apr-30 13:44

-5,000 FVM5 109-07.25, post time bid at 0937:57ET, DV01 $217,000. Tempering the pre-PMI bid

GILTS: Bouncing From Lows Alongside Tsys & Equity Weakness

Apr-30 13:40

UK rates markets look to Tsys/equities for cues following the U.S. data, with the initial sell off fading, leaving yields close to, but not quite matching session lows.

  • Yields 3-5bp lower, early curve flattening bias holds.
  • The overall bullish technical tone persists, with the previously noted downside levels of interest in 10-Year yields and upside levels of interest in futures remaining unchallenged.
  • BoE-dated OIS prices ~94bp of cuts through year-end vs. yesterday’s close of ~92bp and April extremes of ~97bp.
  • Expect macro cues to continue to dominate for the remainder of the day, in the form of U.S. data and any tariff-related headlines, with comments from BoE MPC member Lombardelli (16:30 BST) not set to be market-moving given the setting of her appearance (remarks at the launch of the Bank’s new economics teacher training partnership with Manchester University).

CAD: FX Exchange Traded Options

Apr-30 13:37

FX Exchange trade Option, looking for CAD Weakness, covers the next 4th June BoC rate meeting.

  • CADUSD (6th June) 73.50c, sold at 0.23 in 1.58k.
  • *CADUSD (6th June) 73.00c, sold at 0.11 in 1.1k.