US DATA: Chicago Business Barometer™- December Unrevised

Jan-21 14:45

The December Chicago Business Barometer™ was unrevised at 36.9, the lowest since May 2024, as a result of the annual seasonal adjustment recalculation. 

  • The Barometer was higher than previously estimated in the first half of the year while the second half of the year – Q3 in particular – was weaker than previously estimated.
  • August and September saw the largest downward revisions, with the Barometer revised lower 1.7 points to 44.4 (from 46.1) and to 44.9 (from 46.6) respectively. April recorded the largest upward revision of +2.0 points to 39.9 (from 37.9).
  • The Barometer has remained below 50 for 13 consecutive months and, excluding November 2023, it has been in contractionary territory since September 2022. Q3 showed a faster pace of contraction that extended to Q4, with the Barometer revised lower to 44.6 in Q3 (-1.4 points) and to 39.3 in Q4 (-0.3 points). In contrast, Q1 was revised higher to 44.3 (+0.5 points) and to 41.2 in Q2 (+1.0 point).
  • Employment saw the largest downwards revision in December of 2.6 points to 46.8, followed by Order Backlogs (-1.1 points).
  • Supplier Deliveries was also revised lower by 1.0 point.
  • Production was revised 1.0 points higher to 35.1, while New Orders rose a marginal 0.1 points in December.
  • Prices Paid remained high, with the Prices Paid Indicator revised up 2.6 points to 62.9.
  • Inventories was revised 1.7 points higher in December.
  • Overall, data from the Chicago survey saw minor revisions. All series in the Chicago Report are seasonally adjusted by the US Census X-13 procedure and the seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually every January.
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Historical bullets

TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'

Dec-20 21:16
  • TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
  • TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
  • TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP

USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective

Dec-20 21:00
  • RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
  • RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
  • RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19 
  • PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
  • SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18  
  • SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values 
  • SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6

USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.   

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure

Dec-20 20:30
  • RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
  • RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA               
  • RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12  
  • RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
  • PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
  • SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19 
  • SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
  • SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support 
  • SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.