EM CEEMEA CREDIT: CEEMEA EM Credit Market Update morning
May-29 10:02
???? ???? CEEMEA EM Credit Market Update morning
- In Rates, UST 10Y yields charting at 4.53%, +5bp. The 5s/10s curve unch at 41.01.
- Sovereigns spreads tighter across the board mid-single digits. Higher beta Africans credit spreads are tighter at high teen to low 20’s level. No sovereign primary issues today.
- Risk on day means Corporates, spread moves are tighter around mid-single digits. Only Boubyan Bank in the market today for a 5Y sukuk, please see link for full analysis: https://mni.marketnews.com/3HhPZfW .In the news flow, EMAAR upgraded at Moody’s to Baa1 and Saso; outlook change to negative to negative also at Moody’s see link for full write up https://mni.marketnews.com/4dFMoV1
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FOREX: GBPUSD Prints Fresh 3-Year High Overnight, BOE Next Week
Apr-29 10:01
- A late extension of greenback weakness on Monday prompted GBPUSD to breach a cluster of daily highs in the 1.3430/40 region. A high print of 1.3444 overnight represents the highest traded level for the pair since February 2022, which reinforces the current bullish trend conditions.
- This dynamic maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, and sights are now on 1.3510 (Fib projection) and 1.3550, the Feb 24 ‘22 high. For the cross, we noted that sterling strength Monday prompted EURGBP to trade through a major support area between 0.8520-31 - marking both the early April pullback low as well as the 50% retracement of the tariff-inspired upleg off 0.8323.
- GBP outperformance over the EUR over the past two weeks will partly be a mean reversion effect, but could be as markets see greater near-term potential for a US-UK trade settlement over a US-EU agreement inside the 90-day tariff pause window. More on this here: https://mni.marketnews.com/4jTTreM
- Interestingly, JP Morgan believe GBP strength on a US UK trade deal would present good entry levels to fade over the medium-term. Last week, JPM used favourable levels to enter a short GBP vs NOK, SEK cash basket.
- The next BOE decision is on May 08, which will be accompanied by an MPR and press conference. Going forward, attention will be on when the word ‘restrictive’ may be removed from the statement, however, we think that is more likely to be a language change in either June or August.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Resistance Is At The 50-Day EMA
Apr-29 09:58
- In the equity space, the corrective bull cycle in S&P E-Minis that started on Apr 7, remains in play. The contract has breached a number of important short-term resistance points. Price has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced 5528.75, the Apr 10 high. The next key resistance is 5619.66, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this EMA would strengthen a bull theme. Initial key support lies at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low. A break would be bearish. First support lies at 5355.25, the Apr 24 low.
- EUROSTOXX 50 futures maintain a positive tone and are holding on to their recent gains. The contract has cleared the 20-day EMA and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 5101.76. A clear break of this average would strengthen the current bull cycle and signal scope for a continuation of the corrective uptrend. This would open 5165.00 next, the Apr 3 high. Support to watch lies at 4812.00, the Apr 16 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. First support lies at 4959.00, the Apr 23 low.
EGB SYNDICATION: Finland 10-year: Final terms
Apr-29 09:53
- Spread set earlier at MS+52bps (guidance was MS +54bps area)
- Size: E4bln (in line with MNI expectation)
- Books closed in excess of E23.5bln (inc E750mln JLM interest)
- Coupon: Short first coupon
- Settlement: 7 May 2025 (T+5)
- Maturity: 15 September 2035
- ISIN: FI4000587415
- Bookrunners: BNPP (DM/B&D) / Citi / CACIB / GSBE SE / Nordea
- Timing: Books to close at 10:15BST / 11:15CET
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