US FISCAL: CBO Eyes June Fiscal Surplus; Deficit Still On Track For 6.5-6.7% GDP
Jul-09 20:52
The Congressional Budget office estimates that the federal budget registered a surplus of $26B in Ju...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: A Warning On Core CPI Tracker Recent Accuracy
Jun-09 20:47
- Ahead of Wednesday's CPI report for May, the Cleveland Fed nowcast has headline CPI at 0.13% M/M whilst its core tracker has CPI at 0.23% M/M for a second month running (Bloomberg consensus 0.3%).
- The core tracker was very close for April as it undershot by only 1bps although the previous three months saw weaker correlation including a 20bp overshoot in March and 18bp undershoot in January.
FED: Natixis: Next Cut Pushed Back A Meeting To October
Jun-09 20:37
Natixis becomes the latest sell-side institution to push back expectations of the next Fed cut, following Friday's Employment Report. They now see easing resuming in October, vs September previously. Overall they see consecutive cuts from that point to June 2026 to 2.75-3.00% (150bp of cuts).
- "The resilience in the labor market is the primary reason for pushing out the next cut. The most recent employment report showed a labor market that is continuing to cool a bit, but with few signs of imminent cracks. This will help to confirm that the risk of continuing to wait before resuming the cutting cycle is low and pausing to observe the impact and degree of passthrough from tariffs is the appropriate path."
- Overall it appears that there will be few if any analysts who expect a cut before September, going into the June FOMC meeting next week - we will update next Monday with our overview of analyst expectations.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Jefferies Above Consensus On Core CPI And See Upside Risk
Jun-09 20:17
- Jefferies expect core CPI at 0.34% M/M in May for 3.0% Y/Y.
- "Core goods are expected to come in hot, up 0.6% m/m with new and used cars, up 0.6% and 2.2%, serving as the main contributors. In addition, furnishing and apparel should be firm, each up 0.25%, along with auto parts up 0.5%.”
- What's more, “[t]here is upside risk going into the print given the possibility of tariffs coming through on a broader basis.”
- “The elevated core goods figure will be offset by weak energy goods (-2.6%) due to falling gas prices. For services, car maintenance is expected to come in at 0.6% while OER will remain firm at 0.36%.”
- They see headline CPI at 0.212% M/M for 2.5% Y/Y.
