AUSSIE BONDS: Cash Bond Yields Down Around 3bps, Recent Ranges Holding

Aug-28 02:30

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Aussie bond futures are holding a positive bias in latest dealings. 10yr futures (XM) are up around ...

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AUSSIE BONDS: Modestly Richer With US Tsys, Q2 CPI Tomorrow

Jul-29 02:26

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +1.0) are slightly stronger on a data-light day.

  • The focus of this week will be tomorrow’s Q2 CPI data, which is expected to show the underlying trimmed mean measure making further progress towards the band midpoint of 2.5%. Bloomberg consensus is forecasting a 0.7% q/q rise, bringing the annual rate to 2.7% after 0.7% & 2.9% in Q1. This is slightly higher than the RBA's May Q2 forecast of 2.6%. Services developments will also be monitored. The RBA is expected to cut rates 25bp on August 12.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest sell-off. Wednesday's FOMC announcement is widely expected to be steady rate outcome.  
  • Cash ACGBs are 1-2bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -8bps.
  • The latest round of ACGB May-28 supply saw the weighted average yield print 0.61bps through prevailing mids (per Yieldbroker). However, the cover ratio dropped to 3.3300x from 3.9550x at the previous outing.
  • The bills strip is slightly stronger, with pricing flat to +2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in August is given an 89% probability, with a cumulative 59bps of easing priced by year-end.

CHINA PRESS: New Child Care Subsidy Needs CNY101 Billion Per Year

Jul-29 02:21

China’s new child care subsidy of CNY3,600 per child, up to the age of 3-years old, will require CNY101.2 billion annually, based on latest official data, Yicai.com has calculated. The plan outlines that the central government will offer proportional financial support across the eastern, central and western regions. Local governments may contribute additional funding based on their fiscal capacity, with any supplementary financial requirements to be covered by local budgets. Jiang Quanbao, professor at Capital University of Economics and Business, said other support measures are needed to boost fertility, including education, childcare services, parental leave, healthcare and housing.

CHINA PRESS: Panda Bond Market Expands Further

Jul-29 02:21

China’s panda bond market expanded rapidly in H1, driven by increased participation from foreign institutions, Securities Daily reported. In total, CNY84.4 billion of panda bonds were issued in the first half of 2025, of which CNY23.5 billion came from foreign governments and international institutions, up 161% y/y, the newspaper said. The cumulative market issuance exceeded CNY1 trillion by July 28, ranking second globally in terms of yuan-denominated international financing, a development expected to significantly support the further internationalisation of the yuan, Securities Daily noted.