BUNDS: Bund roll given at 73
Jun-02 08:29
- Bund roll given at 73 in 61.47k and offered over, 72/73 on the follow.
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CROSS ASSET: Global Risk Recovering; Brent Prints Below 75$/bbl
May-03 08:14
- Global risk is recovering, with US and European equity futures seen higher, although the pullback in the US 10y yield persists: 10y at 3.40% and lowest level since Apr 26.
- Crude resumes the decline from yesterday to take Brent back below 75$/bbl, driven by recessionary fears and concern for future oil demand growth. Next technical support for Brent is at 74.06$/bbl.
- Pressure on the greenback extended through Asian hours session and into the European open. The JPY is the day’s strongest G10 currency, closely followed by GBP. EUR is also trading firmer, with EUR/USD eyeing resistance at 1.1095 – the April 26 high.
- Across EM, the MYR outperforms following the unexpected 25bps hike from the BNM. HUF is outperforming in CEE as optimism builds that legislative changes will unlock access to EU cohesion funds. Nevertheless, the CZK trades firmer ahead of the CNB policy meeting – where rates are widely expected to be held.
CROSS ASSET: USDJPY heads towards support, helped by Bonds
May-03 08:10
- Not too far for next support in USDJPY at 135.58, all a function of Government Bonds, pushing higher.
- Bund is now edging to that gap level, starting at 136.62.
- Resistance in TYM3 is at 115.30+ initially.
RBA: MNI RBA Review - May 2023: Services Inflation & Wages Key To Outlook
May-03 08:03
- The RBA unexpectedly hiked rates 25bp to 3.85%, bringing cumulative tightening to 375bp, after pausing in April to gather more information on economic developments.
- The meeting statement is little changed from April, except for the addition of some of the revised forecasts, the discussion of services price pressures and importantly the emphasis that inflation return to target in “a reasonable timeframe”.
- The rate outlook is likely to depend heavily on the quarterly CPI releases, as they include services whereas the monthly one doesn’t, and the RBA’s quarterly forecasts to ensure that inflation will return to target as expected. Thus, the next “live” meeting is likely to be August as Q2 CPI prints on July 26 and new forecasts are due at that decision.
- See full review here.
