USDJPY TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 163.72 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 163.36 2.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
- RES 2: 162.21 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
- RES 1: 161.95 High Jul 3
- PRICE: 161.51 @ 06:46 BST Jul 4
- SUP 1: 160.26/159.32 Low Jun 28 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 157.47 Trendline support drawn from Dec 28 low
- SUP 3: 157.21 /154.55 50-day EMA / Low Jun 4
- SUP 4: 153.60 Low May 16
The trend in USDJPY remains bullish and the pair is trading at its recent highs. The breach of key resistance at 160.17, the Apr 29 high, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and the bullish follow through since, reinforces current conditions. Note that moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 162.21, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 159.32.
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US TSY FLOWS: US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK, 2Y likely Buyer
+5,100 FVU4 101-31.75, post time offer at 15:28:45 AEST, DV01 $200,000. Contract trades 101-31.625 last vs 102-00+ high
USDJPY TECHS: Trades Through The 20-Day EMA
- RES 4: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 158.12 76.4% retracement of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off
- RES 2: 157.99 High May 1
- RES 1: 157.71 High May 29
- PRICE: 156.11 @ 06:40 BST Jun 4
- SUP 1: 154.65 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 153.81 Trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low
- SUP 3: 151.86 Low May 3
- SUP 4: 150.81 Low Apr 5
The trend outlook in USDJPY remains bullish and the latest pullback appears to be a correction - for now. However, the pair has pierced support at the 20-day EMA. A stronger reversal would refocus attention on key support at 154.65, the 50-day EMA, and 153.81, a trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low. A clear break of this support zone would be bearish. For bulls, a move above 157.71, the May 29 high, would resume the short-term uptrend.
EUROZONE ISSUANCE: W/C June 3, 2024
Spain, Belgium, Finland, the ESM, Greece and the EU are all due to sell bills this week, whilst Germany, the Netherlands, and France have already issued bills this week, . We expect issuance to be E24.3bln in first round operations, up from E18.9bln last week.
- This morning, Spain will look to sell a combined E4.5-5.5bln of the 6-month Dec 6, 2024 letras and the new 12-month Jun 4, 2025 letras,
- Also this morning, Belgium will look to sell the 31-week Jan 9, 2025 TC.
- Also today, Finland will come to the market to sell up to a combined E2bln of the 8-month Feb 13, 2025 RFTB and the new 11-month May 13, 2025 RFTB.
- Finally tomorrow, the ESM will look to sell up to E1.1bln of the new 3-month Sep 5, 2024 bills.
- On Wednesday, Greece will look to sell E500mln of the new 52-week Jun 6, 2025 GTB.
- Finally on Wednesday, the EU will come to the market to sell up to E1.5bln of the 3-month Sep 6, 2024 EU-bill and up to E1.5bln of the new 6-month Dec 6, 2024 EU-bill.
For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.
