GOLD TECHS: Bulls Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: 118.390 High Jun 13    
• RES 3: 118.030 High Jul 22 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.600 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 117.710 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 117.270 @ 07:25 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 116.970 Low Jul 25 and a bear trigger   
• SUP 2: 116.840 Low Mar 18 (cont)
• SUP 3: 116.800 Low Mar 17 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 116.637 76.4% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)

Following the early August rally, prices have faded slightly off the weekly high but are holding the bulk of the recent strength. Bobl futures have pierced first resistance of 117.600 (the 50-day EMA), improving the short-term outlook. The bullish candle pattern on Jul 25 and 28 - a hammer formation followed by an engulfing signal - highlights a potential base. A continuation higher would open 118.030, the Jul 22 high. The bear trigger lies at 116.970, the Jul 25 low.

• RES 4: 131.33 High Jun 20
• RES 3: 130.85 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Jul 14 bear leg 
• RES 2: 130.76 High Jul 22
• RES 1: 130.60 High Aug 5
• PRICE: 129.65 @ 07:24 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 128.84 Low Jul 25 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 128.40 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 128.19 Low Mar 27 (cont) 
• SUP 4: 127.83 76.4% retracement of the Mar 11 - Apr 7 bull leg (cont)  

Slipping into the Friday close, Bund futures edged back below the 130.00 handle into the close - although the bear trigger and notable support of 128.84 wasn’t tested. The 50-day EMA of 130.09 has been pierced to the upside, but the rally failed to stick. A continuation higher would open 130.76, the Jul 22 high. A hammer candle formation on Jul 25 followed by a bullish engulfing candle on Jul 28 signals a potential reversal. 

Looking a little closer at the private sector regular pay figure (4.79% 3m Y/Y vs 4.90% prior and 4.8% cons), the single month reading for June was 4.52% Y/Y. This compares to a March 2025 Y/Y reading of 4.86%, so almost a four tenth moderation for in wage growth for the same cohort. 

• A reminder that the April and May single month Y/Y readings saw more notable decelerations of 0.9pp and 1.0pp based on the same cohort.
• Revisions in the single-month measures relative to the July release were minor, with April 2024 revised down 0.01pp, May 2024 revised down 0.05pp and June 2024 revised down 0.01pp.
• Overall, the private sector regular pay figure seems consistent with the view that wage growth is slowing.
• The BOE did not provide an updated forecast for private sector regular pay in the August MPR, but the May MPR projection was 5.20% - notably above the 4.79% 3m Y/Y outcome. Looking ahead, the BOE projects private sector pay to ease to 4.62% in Q3 and 3.66% in Q4.