SCANDIS: Brief Dip In NOKSEK As Norway April CPI Prints Soft
NOKSEK saw a brief snap lower to 0.9286 after Norwegian April CPI-ATE inflation printed below consensus at 3.0% Y/Y (vs 3.2% cons, 3.4% prior). However, the dip was short-lived, with the pair settling -0.15% on the session at 0.9317 at typing.
- Stats Norway notes that “it was especially the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages that contributed to the drop in the growth rate”. This dynamic was expected by analysts.
- This morning’s Swedish activity data shouldn’t have moved the needle for markets too much, as there was no consensus for the print and we already received the flash March (and Q1) GDP indicator last week.
- However, with household consumption at -0.4% (vs 1.0% prior) and private sector production -0.5% M/M (vs -0.3% prior), it seems industrial orders (5.2% M/M vs -6.5% prior) did a lot of the heavy lifting for the 0.6% M/M GDP print.
- As always, the flash Swedish activity data should be taken with a generous pinch of salt – it’s often heavily revised and not necessarily a good predictor actual GDP outcomes.
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GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: $3223.8 - 3.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 3: $3200.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $3196.2 - 3.236 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $3055.6/3167.8 - High Apr 7 / 3 and bull trigger
- PRICE: $3021.1 @ 07:12 BST Apr 9
- SUP 1: $2956.7 - Low Apr 7
- SUP 2: $2946.9 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2880.3 - Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the latest pull back appears corrective. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Price has traded through support at the 20-day EMA. The next key support to watch lies at 2946.9, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3196.2, a Fibonacci projection. The bull trigger is 3167.8, the Apr 3 high.
CHINA: Country Wrap: Premier Optimistic about Prospects.
- In a sea of red across the region, the onshore equities bourses in China were the sole risers today as state owned asset managers bought the market with inflows into ETF's linked to the 'national team' topped CNY87bn on Tuesday, an all time record. (source MNI – Market News).
- Chinese Premier Li Qiang expressed optimism about China's economic growth in 2025, despite the latest tariff threat from US President Donald Trump. Li said China has ample policy tools to "fully offset" any negative external shocks and is strongly confident about maintaining the country's healthy and sustainable economic growth this year. (source: BBG)
- The Hang Seng was down in line with other regional indexes, falling -1.55%, whilst the CSI 300 rose +0.30%, Shanghai +0.24% and Shenzhen +0.47% respectively.
- CNY: Yuan Reference Rate at 7.2066 Per USD; Estimate 7.3387
- Bonds were stronger today with the CGB 10YR at 1.64%, - 2bps on the day.
BRENT TECHS: (M5) Southbound
- RES 4: $77.75 - High Jan 20
- RES 3: $76.26 - High Feb 20
- RES 2: $71.63/75.47 - 50-day EMA / High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $65.21/67.95 - High Apr 7 / Low Mar 5
- PRICE: $60.79 @ 06:58 BST Apr 9
- SUP 1: $60.13 - Intraday low
- SUP 2: $58.85 - 2.000 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $56.89 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $55.00 - Round number support
Brent futures continue to trade in a volatile manner and the contract has again traded to fresh cycle lows, today. Recent weakness has resulted in a move through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs and a number of important support levels have been cleared. This signals scope for a continuation, and sights are on $58.85 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at $67.95, the Mar 5 low.
