EU FINANCIALS: BPER/Sondrio Tender Offer Update
Last night BPER received the all clear from Consob for their Sondrio tender. The Antitrust review remains ongoing - most likely to address competition fears in specific regions.
BPER have noted they would proceed after amassing a 35% shareholding, a relatively low bar given that Unipol owns c.20% in both and is supportive. We note that since the offer date BPSO share price has been consistently and meaningfully higher than the 1.45x offer multiple of BPER's share price. Sondrio's management advised against the 'hostile' approach.
The initial tender period should run from 16th June to 11th July.
Ratings agencies have been relatively positively disposed to the deal, although outright near term upgrades are unlikely. Fitch in particular notes that combining the two business without a 2/3rds stake might take significant time. A difficult barrier in their opinion given the retail share base of Sondrio. https://www.fitchratings.com/research/banks/bper-banca-popolare-di-sondrio-integration-could-be-lengthy-despite-clear-rationale-19-02-2025
Bonds of the two banks are currently trading close to levels expected for their ratings and close to each other, with Sondrio very slightly wide of BPEIM
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EGB SYNDICATION: Germany 2.90% Aug-56 Bund Tap: Allocations
- Size: E4.5bln inc E0.5bln retained by issuer (MNI expects E4-6bln)
- Books closed in excess of E47bln (inc E3.595bln JLM interest)
- Spread set earlier: 2.50% Aug-54 Bund + 2.5bp (mid) (guidance was +3.25bp area)
- HR: 109% vs 2.50% Aug-54 Bund
- Settlement: May 13, 2025 (T+5)
- ISIN: DE000BU2D012
- Bookrunners: Barclays, Citi (B&D), CA-CIB, DZ Bank, GS, JPM. Remaining members of the Bund Issues Auction Group will be invited into the co-lead group
- Timing: Hedge deadline 12:30BST / 13:30CET. Allocations and pricing to follow.
From market source
SONIA: Some Condor sellers
- SFIK5 95.80/95.90/96.00/96.10c condor sold at 6 in 5k.
- SFIM5 96.00/96.15/96.30/96.45c condor, sold at 3.75 in 7.5k
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Gains Considered Corrective
- On the commodity front, Gold has recovered from its recent lows and this suggests the correction between Apr 22 - May 1, is over. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at $3202.0, the May 1 low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. First support to watch is $3252.1, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, a medium-term bearish trend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The move down that started Apr 23 signals the end of the correction between Apr 9 - 23. That cycle higher allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Attention is on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $53.72, a 2.236 projection of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing. Resistance to watch is $64.32, the 50-day EMA.
