EU AUTOMOTIVE: BMW (BMW A2/A/NR): 4Q24 Results
Mar-14 10:17
Marginal negative. Limited impact with automotive guidance in line.
- Deliveries met expectations, with a 3% drop YoY. Pricing was clearly pressured, with gross margin 190bp lower than expected. China and EV demand were drag factors, as expected.
- EBIT missed by 30%, with margins at the low end of guidance, some weakness in FS and eliminations (increased leasing) all factored.
- Automotive FCF of €4.9bn came in ahead of €4bn expected. WC changes were more favourable YoY, and higher non-cash provisions were also a factor. Automotive net cash was left at €12bn, a marginal YoY decrease.
- It guided for flat FY25 EBT, 8% below consensus. Automotive deliveries, FCF and EBIT margin guidance were close to expectations. In an interview the CEO mentioned €1bn impact from US-EU and EU-China tariffs, around 8% of EBIT.
- Webcast 10.00 GMT https://www.live.bmwgroup.com/en/live-streaming/text/BMW-GROUP-ANNUAL-CONFERENCE-2025-15725.html.
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FOREX: JPY Weakness Stands Out, as Markets Looks for Inflection Point
Feb-12 10:13
- The JPY's overnight step lower stands out among G10 FX Wednesday, headlined by USD/JPY's rally back above Y153.00, closing in on the first major resistance at 154.46. Clearance here would be bullish. Despite pulling back from the morning highs, EURJPY remains 0.8% higher today as the cross extends the rebound from Friday’s low. While the move higher is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind, the impressive recovery reached as much as 406 pips, perhaps exacerbated by a short-term positioning squeeze ahead of US inflation data. Furthermore, the hawkish ECB repricing and strength for European equities will have provided additional tailwinds.
- Meanwhile, GBP/USD's strong rally off yesterday's lows means the pair has now retraced over 50% of the post-BoE decision losses, putting the price within 100 pips of last week's highs. This signals that markets are taking Mann's views at face value this week - and that her vote for 50bps last week isn't the beginning of series of votes for aggressive easing given her preference for restrictive policy (we gauge bank rate as being ~100bps above her top estimate of neutral, therefore leaving little room for sizeable cuts).
- In contrast with JPY, CHF is firmer against all others in G10 - benefiting from the unwind of the sharp pullback in the CHF/JPY cross over the course of 2025. Moves come ahead of the January Swiss CPI print, at which markets expected the Y/Y inflation release to retreat further - hitting 0.4% and the lowest rate since early 2021.
- The US inflation print takes focus for the rest of the day, with markets anticipating a moderation in inflationary pressures for January - but the release could be muddier than usual due to the concurrent posting of annual revisions for inflation. Central bank speak also comes through thick and fast, as Powell faces a second appearance in front of lawmakers on top of appearances from BoE's Greene, ECB's Nagel and Fed's Bostic.
ITALY T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 12-month BOT Results
Feb-12 10:06
| Type | 12-month BOT |
| Maturity | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Amount | E8bln |
| Target | E8.0bln |
| Previous | E8bln |
| Avg yield | 2.323% |
| Previous | 2.517% |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.52x |
| Previous | 1.49x |
| Previous date | Jan 10, 2025 |
FOREX: EURJPY Briefly Extends Recovery to Over 400 Pips
Feb-12 10:04
- Despite pulling back from the morning highs, EURJPY remains 0.8% higher today as the cross extends the rebound from Friday’s low. While the move higher is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind, the impressive recovery reached as much as 406 pips, perhaps exacerbated by a short-term positioning squeeze ahead of US inflation data. Furthermore, the hawkish ECB repricing and strength for European equities will have provided additional tailwinds.
- Onshore Japan markets have returned today after yesterday's public holiday, so there may also be some catch up demand in play for Cross/JPY. There are reasonable option expiries in USDJPY for the NY cut later between 153.50-70($1.7bln), which could also be influencing spot trends.
- We noted that BoJ Governor Ueda appeared before parliament earlier, noting there is a risk that higher food inflation impacts inflation expectations more broadly. Ueda said the BOJ is closely watching US economic measures and their impacts, while reiterating that further hikes will depend on the economy and price developments.
- For EURJPY, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this suggests that the latest recovery is likely a correction. Initial resistance to watch is 159.93, the 20-day EMA. Key short-term resistance remains further out at 161.09, the 50-day EMA.
