TARIFFS: Bessent Comments Suggest Limited Progress On China, EU Tariffs

Apr-29 18:15

Tsy Sec Bessent said at the White House press briefing this morning: "We have 18 important trading relationships. We will be speaking to all of those partners, or at least 17 of them." The 18th, he confirmed later, is China. 

  • Asked about whether the administration is talking with China specifically about tariffs or not, Bessent said: "We're not going to talk about who's talking to whom but I think that, you know, over time, we will see that the Chinese tariffs are unsustainable for China." Asked why the Chinese say they're not talking to the US on trade, Bessent again doesn't answer directly, but says: "They have a different form of government. They're playing to a different audience. So I'm not going to get into the nitty gritty again of who is talking to whom."
  • And his comments also implied a full US - EU deal is not close. Regarding the EU, Bessent said "we're negotiating with a lot of different interests. Some of the European countries have put on an unfair digital service tax on our big internet provider, France and Italy, other countries, Germany and Poland, don't have that. So we want to see that unfair tax of one of America's great industries removed. So it's going to be a give and take. So they have some internal matters to decide before they can engage in an external negotiation."
  • Bessent made a point about the potential trade deal with India which may be announced imminently, per multiple reports. He says, "In India, in a funny way, is easier to negotiate with the many other countries because they have very high tariffs and lots of tariffs. So it's much easier to confront the direct tariffs when, as we go through these unfair trade deals that have been put in over decades, that the non tariff trade barriers can be much more insidious and also harder to detect. So a country like India, which has the posted and ready tariffs, it's much easier to negotiate with them, so I think the Indian negotiations are moving well."
  • Note the contrast with the EU, and potentially other trading partners, for which deals are likely to be far more complex due to extensive non-tariff barriers as perceived by the US.
  • EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Dombrovskis met with Bessent last week and reportedly (per media outlet LETA)  told the Treasury secretary that the EU would prefer a deal on tariffs before the 90-day tariff "pause" window was over. A tentative agreement is of course very possible, but by the same token, Bessent doesn't appear to be suggesting that it is close.
  • PBS journalist Lisa Desjardins on X.com noted later Tuesday that the US Trade Representative suggested Europe is "not engaging as well" as some other countries: "NEW. US Trade Rep Greer told GOP senators that countries are coming to the table on tariff talks, but Europe is not engaging as well. Per @SenMullin he said “Madagascar knows what we want, Cambodia and Vietnam know what we want - we are clear”. But Europe not getting it."

Historical bullets

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook

Mar-28 21:00
  • RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
  • RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
  • RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
  • RES 1: 1.4402 High Mar 20 
  • PRICE: 1.4292 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 28
  • SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26 and a key near-term support   
  • SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
  • SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
  • SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle

USDCAD traded through support at 1.4242 on Wednesday but has recovered. A return lower and clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. First resistance is 1.4402, the Mar 20 high.      

US FISCAL: Debt Limit "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up, But Cash Dipping Pre-Tax

Mar-28 20:42

Treasury data shows that there were $207B of "extraordinary measures" available to circumvent hitting the debt limit as of Wednesday Mar 26. 

  • That's the most since Jan 27th and up from $163B a week earlier, from a total $376B available.
  • However, Treasury cash in the TGA fell to $316B as of the 26th (and was down to $280B on Thursday), meaning there were a combined $523B of resources available to avert the debt limit, the lowest since the impasse began in January (and half of the starting amount of just over $1T).
  • The next couple of weeks will be very important for Treasury, as they represent the biggest tax  take of the year. The Congressional Budget Office reported this week that per its estimates "if the debt limit [$36.1T] remains unchanged, the government's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025." Treasury wrote to Congress this month that they would be able  to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
image

AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support

Mar-28 20:30
  • RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
  • RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg              
  • RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger 
  • RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18 
  • PRICE: 0.6291 @ 16:46 GMT Mar 28
  • SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
  • SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
  • SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
  • SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

AUDUSD is unchanged. A short-term bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.      

Related by topic

Energy Data
Gasoil
Marine Oil
Oil Positioning
OPEC
Freight
Jet Fuel
Gasoline
Fuel Oil
Diesel
Oil Options
US Natgas
TTF ICE
Asia LNG
Gas Positioning