USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Price Sequence

The Bureau for Labor Statistics has issued "Corrections to Current Population Survey estimates for April 2025" (link), which will impact some aspects of the Household Survey of the Employment Report for April. 

• However the changes are very minor (in the thousands in a labor force of hundreds of millions) and don't have any impact on the Establishment report (ie headline nonfarm payroll change).
• As the BLS explains, the "minor errors" in April were due to a misweighting of some samples due to a calculation error. But "Major labor force measures, such as the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment–population ratio were unaffected. While corrections will be made to many estimates, the impact is negligible."
• The accompanying Excel spreadsheet in the database shows what the corrections will be when they appear in Friday's May employment report.

• Treasuries look to finish steady (10s) to mixed Tuesday, well off early session highs after higher than expected JOLTS job openings and up-revision to prior openings.
• The JOLTS report for April was on balance one of relative stability in another look at early reaction to Trump administration policies. Job openings surprisingly increased (7391k (sa, cons 7100k) in April after a marginal upward revised 7200k (initial 7192k) in March) whilst the hire rate pushed to its highest since September although the quits rate pushed back lower again after what to us was a surprising uptick back in March.
• Reminder, ADP private employ data schedule for 0815ET tomorrow, not to mention May employment report thjis Friday at 0830ET.
• Stocks pared gains late. S&P eminis off May 29 highs after the WH announced Pres Trump will sign 50% steel & aluminum import tariffs Wednesday. Unfounded Trump-Xi Friday call rumor had buoyed stocks briefly.
• Atlanta Fed President Bostic on Tuesday reiterated his view expressed in the March Dot Plot that he expects one rate cut later this year. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said the U.S. economy faces heightened risks of both higher inflation and a weaker job market, and the current level of interest rates leaves the Federal Reserve in a good place to respond if either threat materializes.

• Crude front month is ending the day higher after mixed reports on an Iran deal, coupled with wildfires affecting Canadian production.
• WTI Jul 25 is up by 1.5% at $63.5/bbl.
• Iran’s foreign minister cast doubts on a US/Iran nuclear deal, resulting in crude prices finding further support on Tuesday, although Reuters later reported a NYT article saying that the US is proposing an interim step in the Iran deal to allow some enrichment.
• WTI futures are in consolidation mode but remain closer to their recent highs. A bear threat remains present and the recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective.
• Key resistance at $62.51, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced again. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, the Apr 4 high.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has fallen by 0.8% to $3,355/oz today, pulling back from its highest levels since May 9 around $3,392 earlier in the session.
• A bullish theme in gold remains intact, with moving average studies in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
• A continuation higher would open $3,435.6 next, the May 7 high.
• On the downside, key support and the bear trigger to watch has been defined at $3,121.0, the May 15 low.