"All five Board Members agreed that the evolution of the external scenario posed important challenges to the local macroeconomic outlook. Changes in global trade policy had deteriorated the outlook for world growth while increasing uncertainty about its future evolution. They agreed that, although the direction of the changes was clearly negative, the magnitude and timing of these effects on the local economy were uncertain"
"They agreed that the potential implications of the external scenario shift on the inflation trajectory could require the policy rate (TPM) to approach the neutral range sooner than anticipated in March IPoM. In this context, the options considered were (i) to lower the MPR by 25 basis points (bp); or (ii) to hold the MPR at 5%."
CANADA MARCH CPI +2.3% YOY VS PRIOR +2.6% ON Travel AND GAS
Apr-15 12:30
CANADA MARCH CPI +2.3% YOY VS PRIOR +2.6% ON TRAVEL AND GAS
CORE TRIM CPI +2.8% YOY FROM +2.9%, MEDIAN STEADY +2.9%
CANADA DATA: Canada March CPI Slows to +2.3% YOY On Lower Travel and Gas
Apr-15 12:30
Canada March CPI slows to +2.3% YOY from +2.6% in Feb., below market expectations. Headline deceleration was largely due to slowdown in air transportation (-12%) and lower gasoline (-1.6%). Offsetting the drop, mortgage interest cost +7.9% and rent +5.1%.
BOC preferred core measures remained elevated. CPI median was unchanged at +2.9% in March. CPI trim slowed to +2.8% from +2.9%.
MOM CPI also decelerated to +0.3% from +1.1% in February, again lower than consensus. Decline also driven by travel tours and gasoline. Moderating the slowdown, food from restaurants +4.7%.
Excluding a federal sales tax break that ended in mid-February inflation would have been -0.1% MOM.
Report is last major data before BoC’s rate decision Wednesday. Markets are divided on whether the central bank will hold or deliver a 25bp cut after seven prior reductions amid trade war pressures on inflation and growth.