BASIC INDUSTRIES: BASF (BASGR A3/A-/A): 1Q25 Results Headlines

• RES 4: 93.79 High Mar 4     
• RES 3: 93.01 High Mar 20        
• RES 2: 92.55 61.8% retracement of the Apr 4 - 27 bear leg 
• RES 1: 92.42 Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 4 high                       
• PRICE: 92.08 @ Close BST Apr 1
• SUP 1: 91.59 Low Mar 31                                      
• SUP 2: 91.03 Low Mar 28  
• SUP 3: 90.55 Low Mar 27 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 4: 90.49 1.618 proj of the Feb 6 - 20 - Mar 4 price swing

The short-term trend outlook in Gilt futures remains bearish, however, recent gains highlight a corrective cycle and this signals scope for a stronger recovery near-term. An extension would open 92.42, a trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 4 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the short-term bull cycle. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 90.55, the Mar 27 low.

• RES 4: 152.70 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Mar 11 bear leg    
• RES 3: 151.30 High Mar 3  
• RES 2: 150.82/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28  
• RES 1: 150.27 High Mar 31 
• PRICE: 149.85 @ 06:52 BST Apr 2 
• SUP 1: 148.70 Low Mar 31    
• SUP 2: 148.18 Low Mar 20 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 147.42 Low Mar 13   
• SUP 4: 146.54 Low Mar 11 nad the bear trigger 

Near-term resistance in USDJPY remains intact. The primary trend direction is unchanged, it remains down and the latest recovery is considered corrective. Key resistance is unchanged, around the 50-day EMA, at 150.82. A clear break of this EMA would undermine the bearish theme and signal scope for a stronger rally towards 152.70, a Fibonacci retracement. The first key support to watch is 148.18, the Mar 20 low. A breach would be bearish. 

Germany, Spain and France are all due to hold conventional auctions this week whilst Finland is due to hold an ORI operation. Already this week, the EFSF held a syndication and Germany held an auction. There is also the potential for Austrian, Finnish and Italian syndications in upcoming weeks. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E32.8bln, lower than last week’s E34.2bln.

For more on this week's issuance and a look ahead to next week's issuance see the full PDF here.

• Today, Germany will return to the market to look to sell E4.5bln of the 2.50% Feb-35 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z049).
• Tomorrow, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli and ObliEi auction. E5.5-6.5bln of nominals will be on offer: the on-the-run 3-year 2.40% May-28 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012O59), the 3.10% Jul-31 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012N43), the 3.90% Jul-39 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012L60). Alongside these, E250-750mln of the 1.00% Nov-30 Obli-Ei (ISIN: ES00000127C8) will also be on offer.
• Also tomorrow, France will hold a LT OAT auction. As we expected, the on-the-run 10-year 3.20% May-35 OAT (ISIN: FR001400X8V5) will be on offer alongside the first reopening of the on-the-run 30-year 3.75% May-56 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XJJ3). We had expected a further two LT OATs on offer, but only the 3.50% Nov-33 OAT (ISIN: FR001400L834) will be on offer alongside the on-the-run issues. With only three OATs on offer, we think that explains the slightly smaller auction size of E10-12bln.
• To conclude the week tomorrow, Finland will hold an ORI operation to sell up to E0.4bln. The bonds on offer will be announced later today.