MEXICO: Banxico Minutes Signal Further Rate Cuts To Come, Despite Inflation Risk

• USDJPY volatility led a whippy session in global currency markets, as market participants digested a deeply negative NFP annual revision but also await significant PPI and CPI releases, due later in the week.
• Initial USDJPY downside momentum was prompted by a set of hawkish comments from the BOJ, indicating there is a "chance of" a hike this year despite the political turmoil following PM Ishiba's resignation Sunday. "Some officials are even of the view that a hike might be appropriate as early as October", the Bloomberg article added. USDJPY reached as low as 146.31, trading within 10 pips of key short-term support.
• Intra-day positioning dynamics may have then fostered a bounce as the market awaited the BLS payrolls revision, with USDJPY trading closer to 147 ahead of the release. Despite a quick dip back down to 146.53, spot has subsequently been grinding higher and currently stands around 147.25 ahead of the APAC crossover.
• Dollar strength has been most notable against the Euro, with EURUSD slipping 0.35% to 1.1720. Lingering French political risks will likely be dampening topside momentum for the single currency. Short-term parameters for EURUSD appear well defined at 1.1829 (Jul 01 high and bull trigger) and 1.1625 (50-day EMA support).
• Price action for the likes of AUD and NZD has been much more contained, particularly allowing AUDUSD to consolidate close to the highest levels of the year, located at 0.6625. In similar vein, GBPUSD sits just 0.09% lower on the day as the pair’s strong technical recovery consolidates. Early strength saw GBPUSD trade within 5 pips of resistance at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. This remains the key short-term hurdle for a stronger bounce.
• Focus turns to US price data, as PPI and CPI releases are expected across Wednesday and Thursday respectively. China CPI and PPI figures will be released during APAC hours tomorrow.

Tsy futures remain moderately weaker, curves flatter with short end near lows (TUZ5 104-13.25, -3) ahead of the $58B 3Y note auction (91282CNY3) at 1300ET, WI is currently at 3.492%, 17.7bp rich to last month's tail. Results will be available shortly after the competitive auctions closes at 1300ET.

• August auction recap: Treasury futures remained weaker, little react after $58B 3Y note auction (91282CNU1) tailed again: drawing 3.669% high yield vs. 3.662% WI; 2.53x bid-to-cover vs. 2.51x prior.
• Peripheral stats saw indirect take-up slip to 53.99% vs. 54.11% prior; direct bidder take-up 28.13% from 29.38% prior; primary dealer take-up rises to 17.88% vs. 16.51% prior.

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 09/09 $2.5B #Repsol E&P Capital $500M 3Y +130, $1B 5Y +160, $1Y 10Y +190
  • 09/09 $2.05B *NCL Corp $1.025B each: 5.25NC2 5.875%, 8NC3 6.25%
  • 09/09 $1B *Korea Development Bank 5Y SOFR+64
  • 09/09 $650M #NBN Co 5Y +60
  • 09/09 $600M UWM Holdings 5.5NC2.5
  • 09/09 $500M #Met Tower 5Y +65
  • 09/09 $Benchmark Stellantis 3Y +175a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +215a
  • 09/09 $Benchmark Raymond James 10Y +110a, 30Y +125a
  • 09/09 $Benchmark DTE Energy 3Y +80a, 10Y +125a
  • 09/09 $Benchmark IDA 7Y SOFR+57a
• Expected Wednesday:
  • 09/10 $3B KFW 3Y SOFR+33a
  • 09/10 $1B Federal Home Loan 2Y +4
• $30.2B Priced Monday