AUSTRALIA: Australian Election: Labor Party Still In A Firm Position

Weakness in crude oil prices spilled over into AUD/USD, which extended losses to a three-week low on Monday.

• The rate has ticked away from yesterday's worst levels and last changes hands at $0.7421, up 4 pips on the day.
• Bulls set their sights on $0.7661, a cycle high printed on Apr 5. Conversely, a slide through yesterday's low of $0.7414 would expose Mar 22 low of $0.7376.
• Australian political leaders keep touring the country in attempt to lure voters ahead of the upcoming federal election, with their comments/electoral promises dominating the local headline flow.
• On the data front, focus moves to CBA household spending & NAB Business Confidence (today), Westpac Consumer Confidence (Wednesday) as well as consumer inflation expectations & labour market report (Thursday).

Late on Monday, CBA noted that their “internal household spending card data for the week ending 8 April signals continuing strength in the household sector. In the fortnight to 8 April, spending growth in all states rose indicating that higher COVID caseloads have not materially dampened overall spending. In the fortnight, South Australia recorded the strongest pick up with all other states also showing spending has significant momentum. The strength across the national household sector is coinciding with an exceptionally tight labour market, providing further evidence that the economy is running hot. Inflationary pressures are accumulating which could be contributing to the increased spending. However, the key takeaway at present is the continued strength of the household sector. Consumer concerns about inflation and upcoming official interest rate hikes do not seem to be translating into dampened spending at present, though it is a risk in the medium term.”

• “Nationally by industry, spending growth on transport fell in the week to 8 April, coinciding with the cut in the fuel excise announced in the Federal Budget. Education spending surged though it is dependant on the timing of university fee due dates, making it volatile. Spending on clothing and footwear continues to be elevated. Recreation remains strong though it has levelled off at elevated levels after recent momentum. Dining and drinking out edged lower though remain at elevated levels, and online spending has been stronger than in store over the last month with COVID case numbers at relatively high levels nationwide.”

The futures curve twist steepened in post-Sydney trade, aided by the dynamic observed in U.S. Tsys, which leaves YM +0.5 & XM -2.0 shortly after Tuesday’s Sydney open, operating around late overnight levels.

• Local headline flow remains attuned to the political dynamics ahead of May’s Federal Election, with little else of note to really digest.
• The latest monthly NAB business survey, weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence reading and household spending from CBA headline the local economic docket on Tuesday. Elsewhere, supply will come in the form of the pricing of the syndication of the new ACGB Nov-33 (the last guidance we saw on Monday had tightened to -1.5bp to +0.5bp vs. XM, from the initial -/+1.5bp), with A$100mn of Aug-40 I/L supply also due from the AOFM.