AUD: AUD/USD - On A Slow Train To Nowhere For The Moment

MNI's monthly US Employment Insight is here

• Soft payrolls gains and wage growth in September’s employment report contrasted with a solid Household Survey (despite a slight uptick in the unemployment rate). On balance, the latest labor market data are unlikely to give Fed policymakers much reason to reconsider their outlooks, though it may further cool October hike talk.
• Nonfarm payrolls growth was clearly weaker than expected in September, rising just 29k (90k consensus), with a two-month downward revision of 60k. Private payrolls told a slightly better story, increasing 46k (81k consensus), although this was accompanied by a heavier 81k downward revision.
• The latest trends remain soft, with 3-month averages of 51k for NFPs and 54k for private payrolls.
• Hourly earnings were another soft patch, rising only 0.13% M/M and moderating to 3.02% Y/Y, a fresh low since 2021. Overall, the labor market continues to show little sign of driving inflationary pressures.
• The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2%, but this should not move the needle.
• On an unrounded basis, the increase was relatively small, from 4.141% to 4.175%, and came alongside a surprise rise in participation to 61.8%. And the Household Survey was otherwise solid, with prime-age unemployment dipping and the U-6 rate down to a 19-month low. New entrants and re-entrants drove the increase in unemployment, while permanent job losers declined.
• Other indicators continue to point to a low-churn, low-fire, low-hire labor market. Job openings and the hires rate remain depressed by historical standards, Challenger hiring announcements were the lowest for a September since 2011, and announced seasonal hiring is muted. However, initial claims recorded a third consecutive sub-200k week, continuing claims fell to their lowest since March 2023, and job cut announcements continued their recent downward trend.

• RES 4: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Jan 30 - Mar 31 - May 1 price swing  
• RES 3: 1.4292 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 30 bear leg   
• RES 2: 1.4264 1.618 proj of the Jan 30 - Mar 31 - May 1 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4263 High Oct 01
• PRICE: 1.4258 @ 17:31 BST Oct 02
• SUP 1: 1.4135/4054 Low Sep 28 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3992 50-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 1.3859 Low Sep 14 
• SUP 4: 1.3732 Low Aug 21 and the bear trigger

USDCAD continues to trade closer to its recent highs. A clear bull cycle  remains in play and this week’s climb reinforces current bullish conditions. Attention is on 1.4248, the Jun 24 and 25 high and the next key resistance. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would strengthen bullish conditions. Sights are on 1.4264, a Fibonacci projection. First key support to watch lies at 1.4054, the 20-day EMA.  

• RES 4: 0.7238 High Sep 09 and a S/T bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.7140 High Sep 21
• RES 2: 0.7079 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 0.6995/7061 High Sep 30 / 20-day EMA 
• PRICE: 0.6949 @ 17:31 BST Oct 02
• SUP 1: 0.6904 Low Oct 1
• SUP 2: 0.6865 Low Jun 30 and a key M/T support
• SUP 3: 0.6849 50.0% 2025 - 2026 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.6833 Low Mar 30  

The current downtrend in AUDUSD remains intact and Thursday’s fresh short-term cycle low reinforces this condition. Price has traded through 0.6953, the 76.4% retracement point of the Jun 30 - Sep 9 bull leg. The breach suggests potential for an extension towards 0.6865, the Jun 30 low and an important medium-term support. Initial firm resistance is at 0.7079, the 50-day EMA. A move through this average would be a bullish development.