AUD: AUD/USD - Challenging 0.6800-0.6850 As The USD Rebounds

The EUR/USD range Friday night was 1.1188-1.1233, Asia is currently trading around 1.1207. The pair has found some decent demand back toward the 1.1150 area after a decent move lower. The break higher in the US Dollar seems to be stalling for the first time after a powerful rebound higher. After having had such a strong move I would not be surprised to see some sort of a reversion to the mean as it consolidates those gains. I have been skewed in favour of running a short in the EUR, the price action has turned decidedly bearish and I suspect rallies are now likely to continue to be sold into, though could we see better levels ? On the day the first resistance is back toward 1.1250-1.1280 through here the 1.1350-1.1400 area comes back into play. I would be looking for opportunities to fade looking for a move back toward 1.0900-1.1000 at some point down the line.           

• MNI CHINA-EU: Trade Com-Understanding Could Cut China's Hybrid Exports To EU By Half Speaking at a press conference in Beijing, EU Trade Commissioner talks about the agreements reached with China following talks with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. Sefcovic: "We have reached a shared understanding to moderate China's export of hybrids and plug-in hybrids to the European Union... opens prospects of cutting China's exports by more than a half". 
• The Economist: “America’s advantages over Europe include the world’s reserve currency and a growing economy. Europe’s disadvantage can be summed up in one word: France.”
• CFTC Data up to 06/10/26 shows the Leveraged community adding slightly to their already sizable shorts, -84 775(Last –82 445). Asset managers continue to walk back their own core longs, +218 703(Last +245 160). 
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 1.1500(EU663m). Upcoming Close Strikes :  1.1250(EU2.37b Oct 15), 1.1400(EU2.21b Oct 15), 1.1500(EU3.11b Oct 15) - BBG
• The EUR/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 62 Points

Fig 1 : EUR CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

Fig 2 : EUR/USD Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

Below is a selection of key recent onshore media highlights for China ICYMI :

MNI China Press Digest Oct 12: Sino-EU, CSRC, Logistics.

Outlook (Xinhua): High-frequency data points to China's improving economic momentum in Q3.

Auto Sector (Global Times): China proposes tougher vehicle designing, testing rules.

CSRC (China Sec Journal): Let's work together to build a better capital market and better reward investors.

Gold (China Daily): Investment demand fuels China's gold buying.

Outlook (China Daily): Road map set for ramping up development.

China EU (China Daily): China, EU talks keep trade ties stable.

Stocks (Sec Daily): A-share companies repurchased over 130 billion yuan this year, an increase of nearly 20% year-on-year.

Outlook (Sec Daily): With policy support intensification, incremental funds are expected to enter the market in the fourth quarter.

China EU (BBG): China Moves to Stave Off Wider EU Trade War With Hybrid Deal.

China EU (BBG): EU to Cap Chinese Hybrid Car Imports at 350,000 Each Year.

"*S&P 500 FUTURES GAIN 0.3%, NASDAQ 100 FUTURES RISE 0.4%" - BBG 

(still looks to be supported by the weaker oil futures backdrop)