AUD: AUD/EUR: Fresh Cycle Lows, Lowest Level Since August 2021

Apr-11 22:53

AUD/EUR was pressured yesterday, printing a fresh cycle low, and its lowest level since August 2021.

  • European yields rose substantially on Tuesday as the German yield curve caught up with moves seen in its US counterpart. ECB terminal rate expectations were sharply repriced upwards which boosted the Euro.
  • AUD/EUR has now fallen ~2.3% of April highs after being unable to break the 20-Day EMA early in the month.
  • The downtrend remains firmly in place, bears can now target €0.60 handle which opens up €0.5890 a Fibonacci projection.
  • Bulls first look to sustain a break of the 20-Day EMA (€0.6170) to turn the tide.

Fig 1: AUD/EUR Daily Spot, EMAs


Source: MNI/Bloomberg

Historical bullets

USD: Remains Weaker As Equity Futures Rise on Fed/Treasury Statement, JPY Gains Pared

Mar-12 22:46

The USD remains on the backfoot, with broader risk appetite firming. US equity futures are rallying (+1% for US eminis and Nasdaq futures). This comes in response to a joint statement from the FDIC, The US Treasury and the US Fed. This statement confirms earlier reports that SVB depositors will be fully protected and have access to all funds on Monday. The other part of the statement highlighted the additional funding available from the Fed to prevent broader liquidity issues in the banking system.

  • AUD/USD is now +0.75% to 0.6630 and the best performer within the G10 space. NZD/USD is also catching up somewhat, last near 0.6165, +0.55% for the session.
  • JPY gains have been pared; USD/JPY is back above 134.50. We were at lows sub 133.60 earlier in the session. For the session yen is still 0.40% firmer. EUR/USD is slightly down from session highs, back under 1.0700.

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (H3) Bounce Firms For Solid Weekly Close

Mar-12 22:45
  • RES 3: 97.530 - High Mar 31 (cont)
  • RES 2: 97.295 - High Aug 3 (cont)
  • RES 1: 97.040 - High Jan 19
  • PRICE: 96.792 @ 15:50 GMT Mar 10
  • SUP 1: 96.280 - Low Feb 22
  • SUP 2: 96.070 - Low Sep 27 and bear trigger (cont)
  • SUP 3: 95.960 - Low Jun 17 (cont)

The bounce across Aussie 3yr futures firmed into the Friday close on the back of a solid US jobs report, rallying to touch 96.794. The near-term strength opens further gains toward next resistance at the Jan 19 high at 97.040. More broadly, however, the onus remains lower for now. Markets printed a fresh pullback low at 96.280 in recent weeks. Any further weakness will signal scope for a decline towards 96.070, the Sep 27 low on the continuation chart. This level is a key support and bear trigger.

US: Joint Statement By The Department Of The Treasury, Federal Reserve, And FDIC

Mar-12 22:38

"The following statement was released by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell, and FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg:"

  • "Today we are taking decisive actions to protect the U.S. economy by strengthening public confidence in our banking system. This step will ensure that the U.S. banking system continues to perform its vital roles of protecting deposits and providing access to credit to households and businesses in a manner that promotes strong and sustainable economic growth."
  • "After receiving a recommendation from the boards of the FDIC and the Federal Reserve, and consulting with the President, Secretary Yellen approved actions enabling the FDIC to complete its resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, California, in a manner that fully protects all depositors. Depositors will have access to all of their money starting Monday, March 13. No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer."
  • "We are also announcing a similar systemic risk exception for Signature Bank, New York, New York, which was closed today by its state chartering authority. All depositors of this institution will be made whole. As with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, no losses will be borne by the taxpayer."
  • "Shareholders and certain unsecured debtholders will not be protected. Senior management has also been removed. Any losses to the Deposit Insurance Fund to support uninsured depositors will be recovered by a special assessment on banks, as required by law."
  • "Finally, the Federal Reserve Board on Sunday announced it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors."
  • "The U.S. banking system remains resilient and on a solid foundation, in large part due to reforms that were made after the financial crisis that ensured better safeguards for the banking industry. Those reforms combined with today’s actions demonstrate our commitment to take the necessary steps to ensure that depositors’ savings remain safe."
  • Click for full release.