EU REAL ESTATE: AroundTown (ARNDTN: BBB) Q1 25
Credit Neutral. Results are stable.
- Net Rental Income €295m like-for-like +3%; +1% after disposals.
- Offices (38% of portfolio) only growing at 1.6% but Residential 4.5% and Hotels 3.7%.
- Adj EBITDA €251m +1%.
- 15% of portfolio was revalued with +0.8% increase.
- EPRA NTA €8.4bn +2% vs Year End.
- Disposals €150m completed in Q1 at 18x rent. €140m signed ytd.
- Reported LTV reduced to 41% from 42% from YE.
- EPRA LTV 59% down from 60%.
- ICR 4.3x up from 3.9x vs 1Q24.
- Notes return to office trend and increase in office “take-up” in larger cities.
- FY 25 guidance confirmed.
- Issued €750m in May 2025.
- S&P cut to BBB (Perps BB+) 29th April citing lack of progress in disposals and concerns over acquisitions and vendor loans.
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Historical bullets
BTP TECHS: (M5) Breaches Resistance
- RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)
- RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance
- RES 1: 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- PRICE: 120.09 @ Close Apr 25
- SUP 1: 119.42/118.85 High Apr 22 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 117.28 Low Apr 10
- SUP 3: 116.06 Low Apr 9
- SUP 4: 115.75 Low Apr 14 and a bear trigger
BTP futures have traded higher last week and the contract maintains a bullish tone. Last Thursday’s strong rally reinforces current bullish conditions. The move higher has resulted in the break of key resistance at 120.39, the Feb 28 high. Sights are on 120.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 118.85, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would unwind this trend condition.
RATINGS: Affirmations & Outlook Tweaks On Friday
Rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- S&P affirmed Belgium at AA; Outlook revised to Negative
- S&P affirmed Slovakia at A+; Outlook revised to Negative
- S&P affirmed Turkey at BB-; Outlook Stable
- Morningstar DBRS assigned A rating to Croatia, Stable Trend
- Morningstar DBRS assigned AA rating to Czech Republic, Stable Trend
- Morningstar DBRS confirmed the European Union at AAA, Stable Trend
- Scope Ratings affirmed Luxembourg at AAA, Outlook Stable
GILT TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Intact
- RES 4: 94.50 High Apr 7 and key resistance
- RES 3: 94.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 93.44 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7-9 sell-off
- RES 1: 93.34 High Apr 25
- PRICE: 93.15 @ Close Apr 25
- SUP 1: 92.22 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 91.73/91.43 Low Apr 17 / 15
- SUP 3: 90.47/89.99 Low Apr 11 / 9
- SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)
Gilt futures traded higher last week. The climb marks an extension of the recovery that started Apr 9 and the rally cancels a recent bearish theme. 92.63, the Apr 8 high, has been breached, exposing 93.44, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7-9 sell-off. A break of this level would strengthen the current bull cycle and expose 94.50, the Apr 7 high and a key resistance. Support to watch is 92.22, the 20-day EMA.
