CHILE: April CPI Inflation Seen Edging Lower, Still Above Target
May-08 11:16
- April CPI inflation data will be published at 1300BST(0800ET), with analysts expecting the chained measure of annual inflation to dip to 4.6% y/y, from 4.9% in March. Although the BCCh expects inflation to remain high in the near-term, warranting its cautious stance, it still struck a more dovish tone at its recent MPC meeting, keeping the door open to renewed rate cuts later this year.
- April CPI YoY Chained, est. 4.6%, prior 4.9%
- April CPI MoM est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
- JP Morgan expects the BCCh to resume the easing cycle in July, with the policy rate projected to converge to 4.0% by year-end. By contrast, BBVA sees the BCCh remaining on hold in the coming months, noting that despite the recent improvements, inflation remains above target and so far has been insufficient to persuade the BCCh to resume easing amid an uncertain external environment.
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FOREX: NZDUSD Bounces Well from Key Support, RBNZ Decision Wednesday
Apr-08 11:11
- In similar vein to its antipodean counterpart, NZD bounced well overnight amid the recovery for risk sentiment. Yesterday’s low ~0.5510 for NZDUSD matched closely with the 2022 lows, increasing the significance of this area of technical support.
- Overall, the latest developments have prompted moving average studies to move into a bear mode position, underpinning the bearish momentum for NZDUSD. Downside was exacerbated on a break back below a short-term pivot at 0.5711 on Friday, which now provides resistance for the pair.
- SocGen believe that latest developments re Japan and China support the idea that tariffs could be lowered as deals are made. They say that long AUD/NZD appeals if as expected the RBNZ remains dovish and cuts rates again overnight.
- A 25bp rate cut is unanimously expected, bringing the OCR to 3.50%. Data have remained soft but still signal a gradual recovery and so the MPC is likely to ease in line with its February guidance, while maintaining its easing bias. RBNZ dated OIS is pricing a cumulative 98bps by November 2025. Our preview of the RBNZ meeting is here: https://mni.marketnews.com/3RF3qIF
EU-BOND SYNDICATION: Dual-tranche: 2.625% Jul-28 / 2.50% Oct-52: Allocations
Apr-08 11:10
2.625% Jul-28 EU-bond (EU000A4D5QM6)
- Spread earlier set at MS+14bps (Guidance was MS+15 bps area)
- Size confirmed at E5bln (MNI had expected E4-6bln)
- Books closed in excess of E41bln (in E5.5bln JLM interest)
- HR 106% vs 2.40% Apr-28 Bobl
2.50% Oct-52 EU-bond (EU000A3K4DT4)
- Spread set at MS+126bps (Guidance was MS+128 bps area
- Size: E3bln versus guidance of E2bln (MNI had expected E4-6bln)
- Books closed in excess of E45bln (in E5bln JLM interest)
- HR 119% vs 0% Aug-52 Bund
For both:
- Settlement: 15 April 2025 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, J.P. Morgan, Natixis and Nomura
- Timing: Hedge deadline 12:25BST / 13:25CET. Pricing to follow
From market source
EQUITIES: EU Bank put spread vs call
Apr-08 11:09
SX7E (17th Apr) 155/150ps vs 171c, bought the ps for 0.25 in ~7.2k.
