THAILAND: Anutin Set To Become PM As House Of Representatives Convenes For Vote

German factory orders were weaker than expected in June, at -1.0% M/M vs 1.1% consensus even considering a 0.6pp upward revision of the May figures to -0.8% (due to a large-scale order in the manufacture of other transport equipment which was reported late). Excluding large-scale one-offs, June orders were stronger, at +0.5% M/M. Considering that, the print broadly constitutes a move sideways on weak levels. Sentiment (ifo business climate manufacturing balance, Manufacturing PMI) meanwhile stands at cycle highs.

• On a yearly comparison, factory orders came in at 0.8% Y/Y (vs 2.1% cons; 6.1% prior, revised from 5.3%).
• "The negative development of new orders in manufacturing in June 2025 was attributable to a low level of new orders for the manufacture of other transport equipment for the month of June (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles; -23.1% on the previous month after seasonal and calendar adjustment). Declining new orders in the automotive industry (-7.6%) and for the manufacture of fabricated metal products (-12.9%) also has a negative impact on overall performance. By contrast, the increase in new orders for the manufacture of electrical equipment (+23.5%) had a positive effect.", Destatis comments.
• Foreign orders, which carried the overall print in recent times (see chart below), saw a weak sequential reading at -3.0% M/M. Domestic orders meanwhile moved off their post-pandemic lows seen in May, at 2.2% M/M.
• Real turnover in manufacturing, which can provide some signal for the July industrial production release (due tomorrow), was 0.9% M/M and -1.2% Y/Y. Current consensus for July IP stands at -0.5% M/M (1.2% prior) - so there may be some upside risks to tomorrow's print (the correlation between the two releases was a bit mixed recently, however).

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $37.872 @ 07:26 BST Aug 6  
• SUP 1: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish despite the recent unconstructive price action. The pullback off the late July highs is considered corrective - particularly as prices have recovered off support at the $36.652 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, but a clear break of it is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.    

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3390.5/3439.0 - High Aug 5 / 23             
• PRICE: $3377.1 @ 07:23 BST Aug 6 
• SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Gold benefited from the soft NFP print on Friday, returning prices toward the top-end of the recent range. This supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3325.9, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.