BOC: Analysts Maintain Terminal BOC Rate Expectations Post-Meeting (1/2)

• Spot gold has rallied by 1.1% today to $3,338/oz, leaving the yellow metal 2.8% above yesterday's $3,248.7 low.
• Mounting fiscal concerns in the US as the Senate passed President Trump’s tax bill may be providing some support to gold, which has also benefitted from the further decline in the dollar so far this week.
• The recovery in gold highlights a possible false trendline break, after spot pushed through the 50-day EMA and trendline support drawn from the December 30 low last Friday.
• Spot has pierced initial resistance at $3,336.3, the 20-day EMA today, exposing the June 23 high at $3,395.1. Stronger gains would refocus attention on $3,451.3, the June 16 high.
• Meanwhile, crude is on track for slight gains on the day, with the market weighing stronger seasonal demand and improved global economic outlooks ahead of expected US trade deals, against expectations of another large OPEC+ output hike in August.
• WTI Aug 25 is up by 0.5% at $65.4/bbl.
• Oil traders expect OPEC+ will agree a fourth bumper oil supply increase on July 6, Bloomberg reports.
• For WTI futures, support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at $64.64, which has been pierced. A clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, exposing $58.87, the May 30 low.
• On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.

• Stocks remain mixed in late Tuesday trade, the Dow continues to outperform weaker Nasdaq stocks while SPX eminis see-saw around steady. Currently, the DJIA trades up 426.94 points (+0.97%) at 44521.18, S&P E-Minis down 0.5 points (-0.12%) at 6253.25, Nasdaq down 127.80 points (-0.6%) at 20241.96.
• Trade negotiation headlines took a backseat to the Senate's US budget bill vote that needs a simple majority of 50 votes to pass, rather than the 60 required to pass under regular Senate order. In the case of a 50-50 vote, Vice President JD Vance would cast the tie-breaking vote.
• Stocks drifted higher after the Senate narrowly passed the budget bill which now goes to the House where GOP leaders want to see a final vote tomorrow, allowing Congress to send the completed bill to President Trump's desk on July 4.
• Materials, Health Care and Retail sectors led gainers in the second half with a fair amount of discretionary stocks as well: Builders FirstSource +9.44%, Las Vegas Sands +8.83%, Wynn Resorts +8.64%, Packaging Corp of America +7.44%, MGM Resorts International +7.21%, Smurfit WestRock PL +6.00%, Target Corp +5.62%, Hershey Co +5.49% and Best Buy Co +5.35%.
• Technology and energy related shares continued to underperform in late trade, the latter under pressure as an amendment to the budget bill struck down state-level bans on AI regulation: Palantir Technologies -4.60%, Broadcom -3.58%, Advanced Micro Devices -3.22%, Arista Networks -3.11% and Nvidia -2.11%. Perhaps ironically, energy stocks were under pressure for the same reasons as high speed chips use a lot of energy: Williams Cos -5.68%, GE Vernova -5.22%, Expand Energy -4.16% and Vistra -3.85%.

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3  
• RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 146.19/148.03 High Jun 24 / 23
• RES 1: 145.04 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 143.59 @ 16:22 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 142.68 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 4: 141.49 Low Apr 23    

A bear threat in USDJPY remains intact and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The Jun 23 shooting star candle formation highlighted a reversal of the recent recovery. Note too that price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the averages strengthens a bearish threat and opens 142.12, the May 27 low and a key short-term support. On the upside, a move above 148.03, the Jun 23 high, would reinstate a bullish theme.