AMERICAS OIL: Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: US Crude Sells Off

January 21 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: US Crude Sells Off as Market Assesses Trump Tariffs Not an Imminent Risk 

• WTI crude oil futures declined as the potential impact of the new Trump administration tariffs appeared diminished as a threat while the dollar rose and a milder US weather forecast emerged.
• Several USGC terminals and ports have been disrupted by the winter storm in the Southeast. These closures could last for another day or more as freezing temperatures are expected overnight.
• President Trump resumed office Monday issuing several executive orders aimed at permitting drilling on federal lands and facilitating LNG exports. Trump told reporters that tariffs on Canada and Mexico would likely be implemented around Feb 1. This was enough to take some risk out of the energy markets and crude sold off accordingly.
• The NOAA 6–14-day outlook took on a milder theme with very little colder-than-normal in the 6-10 day and a bit in the East through the 10–14-day period. Thus, the outlook is net bearish with some mild support for heating demand in PADD 1 later in the outlook period.
  • WTI Feb futures were down 2.3% at $76.09
  • WTI Mar futures were down 1.8% at $75.98
  • RBOB Feb futures were down 1.2% at $2.09
  • ULSD Feb futures were down 2.4% at $2.56
• Platts reports there was an unplanned outage at Marathon’s 597kb/d Garyville, Louisiana refinery after the plant lost power. The outage is likely to be bullish for US diesel and gasoline with the potential to impact around 200kb/d of output respectively for the duration. Conversely, the outage is bearish crude due to run cuts.
• LyondellBasell delays shutting its 264kb/d Houston refinery to Jan 27 from Jan 20 due to a winter storm. The complete shutdown is happening in stages through April.
• Cold temps in North Dakota shut-in 130-160-kb/d in oil production per the state’s Pipeline Authority, who also said most of it should be back in 4-7 days.
• The IMF raised its 2025 world GDP growth outlook to 3.3% due to a stronger US outlook.
• Energy Aspects director of research Amrita Sen said US sanctions are hitting about 500k-1mb/d of flows from Russia to Asia. Backwardation shows “acute tightness” in physical oil markets and US output growth is getting “flatter and flatter” concentrated in NGLs and gas.