CZECHIA: Advance Data Expected To Show Continued GDP Growth In 1Q25
The CZSO will release advance Q1 GDP figures at 08:00BST/09:00CEST. Based on Bloomberg's survey of economist, consensus is for a slight acceleration in annual growth to +2.0% Y/Y from +1.8% prior, and a decline in sequential growth rate to +0.5% Q/Q from +0.7%.
- Česká spořitelna expect a gradual economic recovery to continue and see Q1 growth at +0.4% Q/Q, with annual growth around +2.0% Y/Y, unless historical data gets revised. They note that Czechia's economic growth is generally stable, driven by household and government consumption. On the other hand, a slowdown in Germany is weighing on Czech exports and private investments.
- ČSOB expect Czech GDP growth to print at +0.5% Q/Q in 1Q2025, with expansion driven primarily by the increase in real incomes and household consumption.
- Goldman Sachs expect GDP growth to stay at +0.7% Q/Q on a sequential basis and accelerate to +2.1% Y/Y on an annual basis. They note that 'growth was mostly driven by private consumption in 2024' while 'the recovery in investment activity remains slow'. They add that Czechia is 'among the most vulnerable EM economies to US tariff increases' hence they downgraded sequential growth for the rest of this year, although, on the other hand, short-term momentum has strengthened.
- ING write that 'we should see further economic recovery in the Czech Republic, with a few upside surprises in the monthly data likely beating the Czech National Bank's GDP forecast.'
- JP Morgan write that economic activity has accelerated beyond their expectations 'across the board' as 'retail sales keep trending higher (as expected), industry rebounded, private services jumped and construction soared.' As a result, they see 1Q25 growth at +4.25% Q/Q SAAR.
- MUFG expect GDP growth to edge higher to +2.0% Y/Y amid a 'gradual recovery in domestic demand, supported by easing inflation, and a resilient labour market.' They note that 'recent stabilisation in supply chains and a more accommodative monetary stance by the CNB may have contributed positive to both consumption and investment activity in early 2025.'
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Sights Are On The Bear Trigger
- RES 4: 5896.39 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 5778.68 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 5651.25 Low Mar 21
- PRICE: 5584.50 @ 07:02 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 5574.25 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5559.75 Low Mar 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
S&P E-Minis traded sharply lower Friday and the contract maintains a softer tone. Attention is on key support and the bear trigger at, 5559.75, the Mar 13 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started Feb 19, and open 5483.30, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high.
RATINGS: Affirmations On Friday
Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- S&P affirmed the Czech Republic at AA-; Outlook Stable
- Scope Ratings affirmed the United Kingdom at AA; Outlook Stable
EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M5) Trades Through A Key Support
- RES 4: 5600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 5516.00 High Mar 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 5471.00 High Mar 19 / 20
- RES 1: 5359.39 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 5218.00 @ 06:41 BST Mar 31
- SUP 1: 5200.00 Round number support
- SUP 2: 5160.00 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 5079.00 Low Feb 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 5040.00 Low Jan 16
Eurostoxx 50 futures are trading lower today and this has resulted in a breach of key support at 5229.00, the Mar 11 low. The print below this support undermines a bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on the 5200 handle next, where a break would open 5079.00, the Feb 3 low. It is still possible that recent weakness is part of a broader correction. Initial resistance to watch is 5359.39, the 20-day EMA.
